Anthropic is AI trade's last big hope for a major IPO this year
Anthropic is seen as the only major company left that likely will announce an IPO in 2026 on prediction market platform Kalshi.
Intelligence analysis by Qwen 2.5 (3B)
Prediction market platform Kalshi shows only Anthropic has greater than 50% odds of announcing an IPO in 2026, with other companies like OpenAI and Databricks having lower odds.
A prediction market called Kalshi says only one big company, Anthropic, is likely to go public this year. Other companies like OpenAI and Databricks are not expected to go public.
Analysis
{"
Kalshi Prediction Market Insights":"The prediction market platform Kalshi has been tracking the odds of major companies announcing IPOs in 2026. As of early June, Anthropic was seen as the only major company with greater than 50% odds of officially announcing an IPO this year. Other companies like OpenAI and Databricks have seen their odds decline, with OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman ruling out a public debut in 2026. The platform's insights reflect the broader trend of reduced IPO activity and the challenges companies face in the current market environment.","
IPO Activity and Trends":"IPO activity has seen a decline this year, with the number of U.S. IPOs priced this year down 33% compared to 2025. The decline is attributed to factors such as the growth of private companies and the challenges they face in seeking public markets. The prediction market platform Kalshi has been tracking these trends, with Anthropic's prospects remaining the most promising for a major IPO in 2026.","
Market Expectations and Reality":"Investors were initially excited about the prospect of major IPOs in 2026, including from companies like SpaceX and Anthropic. However, the reality has been different, with OpenAI ruling out a public debut and other companies like Databricks and Deel seeing their IPO odds decline. The prediction market platform Kalshi's insights reflect these changes, with Anthropic's prospects remaining the most promising for a major IPO in 2026."}
Key points
- Kalshi prediction market shows only Anthropic has greater than 50% odds of announcing an IPO in 2026
- Other companies like OpenAI and Databricks have seen their odds decline
- IPO activity has declined this year, with the number of U.S. IPOs priced down 33% compared to 2025
The prediction market platform Kalshi suggests that Anthropic is the only major company left with a chance of going public in 2026, which could be good news for investors.
The prediction market platform Kalshi shows that other companies like OpenAI and Databricks have lower odds of going public, which could be bad news for investors.
