Bitcoin may seek 20-month trend line reclaim before new record highs: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim its 20-month simple moving average (SMA) at $87,165, a critical "inflection frontier" that historically precedes new all-time highs, according to CryptoQuant.
Intelligence analysis by Gemini 2.5 Flash
On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant reports that Bitcoin's market cycle signals tool indicates BTC is mirroring past patterns, positioning itself to break above a key 20-month moving average. Successfully reclaiming this trend line, which it lost in December 2025, is seen as a prerequisite for Bitcoin to achieve new record highs, despite current market fears.
Imagine Bitcoin is like a superhero trying to reach the top of a very tall building. Right now, it's trying to jump over a special 'level-up' line, called the 20-month moving average, which is like a big hurdle at $87,165. If Bitcoin can successfully jump over this line, experts think it will get super strong and fly even higher than it ever has before, reaching new record heights!
Analysis
The current market sentiment around Bitcoin is characterized by a battle for a crucial technical level, the 20-month simple moving average (SMA). This trend line, currently positioned at $87,165, is not merely a technical indicator but an "inflection frontier" that has historically dictated Bitcoin's trajectory towards new macro highs. CryptoQuant's analysis highlights that Bitcoin's price action is mirroring historical cycles, suggesting that a successful reclaim of this SMA could unlock significant upside potential, pushing the cryptocurrency beyond its previous all-time high of $126,200 from October 2025.
20-Month SMA
The 20-month SMA serves as a pivotal technical benchmark for Bitcoin's market cycles. It forms the central component of the popular Bollinger Bands metric, which CryptoQuant utilizes in its market cycle signals tool. Historically, the zone below this SMA has been identified as an "accumulation base," while the SMA itself represents a point where investor capitulation occurred when prices broke below it. The article notes that Bitcoin lost this critical trend line in December 2025, and its current attempt to challenge it from below is a significant development. A successful breach of this $87,165 level is seen as a strong indicator that the market has completed its "reset" phase and is preparing for a new leg up.
CryptoQuant
CryptoQuant, an on-chain analytics platform, is the primary source of this optimistic outlook. Their market cycle signals tool, which integrates various on-chain profitability metrics, continues to classify Bitcoin as being in a bull market. The firm's CEO, Ki Young Ju, had previously declared the bear market "over" in late August based on these indicators. The current reading of their bull-bear market cycle indicator, at 0.186, shows accelerating bullish momentum compared to 0.042 in August. This comprehensive on-chain data underpins CryptoQuant's confidence that despite macroeconomic headwinds and retail investor fears, Bitcoin is in a strong position for continued growth, with the next rally expected to surpass previous highs.
GugaOnChain
CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain further elaborated on this analysis, emphasizing that the market has concluded its "reset" phase, approximately a year after Bitcoin's all-time high in October 2025. GugaOnChain's perspective suggests that while retail investors might be apprehensive about the current price levels around $82,442, on-chain indicators reveal that the market is merely "warming up." This implies that the current price action, rather than being a peak, is a foundational stage for a more substantial rally. The confluence of the 20-month SMA with Bitcoin's 2026 opening level at $87,490 further reinforces its significance as a resistance point, making its reclaim a powerful bullish signal.
Key points
- Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim its 20-month simple moving average (SMA) at $87,165.
- CryptoQuant's market cycle signals tool indicates BTC is copying historical patterns, suggesting a run to new macro highs if the SMA is reclaimed.
- The 20-month SMA is considered an "inflection frontier" that historically precedes new cycle highs.
- On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows accelerating bullish momentum, with the bull-bear market cycle indicator at 0.186.
- Despite retail fears, CryptoQuant believes the market has completed its "reset" and is "just warming up" for a rally beyond previous all-time highs.
If Bitcoin successfully reclaims its 20-month SMA, it could trigger a significant rally, leading to new all-time highs beyond its October 2025 peak of $126,200. This would confirm the continuation of the bull market, rewarding investors who accumulated during the "reset" phase.
Failure to break above and sustain the 20-month SMA at $87,165 could signal continued resistance, potentially leading to further consolidation or a prolonged period below this critical "inflection frontier." This might delay the anticipated run to new record highs, testing investor patience.
Market signals
- BTC Bitcoin's potential reclaim of a key 20-month moving average could signal a run to new all-time highs, according to CryptoQuant.
AI-generated analysis of potential market relevance. Not financial advice.
