Bitcoin outlook improves amid 6% weekly gain: Can BTC bulls push higher?
Bitcoin buyers have returned to spot, futures, and ETF markets, but geopolitical headwinds could quickly unravel the progress of the past two weeks.
Intelligence analysis by Llama
Bitcoin's spot and futures cumulative volume delta confirmed a $925 million net buying day, while spot Bitcoin ETFs added $107.7 million in net inflows. However, market sentiment has yet to catch up, with the Fear & Greed Index still in 'Fear' territory.
Imagine you're at a big store, and people are buying a lot of a certain toy. But then, someone comes in and says, 'Hey, the store is going to close soon!' People might start to get worried and stop buying the toy. That's kind of what's happening with Bitcoin. People are buying it, but there are some big worries that might make them stop.
Analysis
A $60B Vote of Confidence
The recent 6% weekly gain in Bitcoin's price has sparked optimism among buyers, with the spot and futures cumulative volume delta confirming a $925 million net buying day. This orderbook activity absorbed the entire post-CPI pullback in open interest and price, rather than collapsing into it. The spot Bitcoin ETFs also added $107.7 million in net inflows on July 15, marking the second consecutive positive day following $181 million on July 14.
However, despite the traction in spot, futures, and ETF markets, market sentiment has yet to catch up. The Fear & Greed Index sits near 26, still in 'Fear' territory, despite Bitcoin's roughly 4.4% bounce off its recent $62,100 low. For traders that use the metric in a contrarian sense, positive flows holding up while sentiment stays depressed has historically been a more durable setup than a rally where sentiment has already priced in.
Why Geopolitics Matter
The positive data for the week do not confirm a change in trend. Yes, two days of confirmed buying are notable, but they are not decisive. Currently, funding is cooling toward neutral, spot ETF flows remain negative for the year, and a cluster of long liquidations sits roughly 1.5% below the current price ($63,200). The US war in Iran resumed, oil prices shot above $85, and projections for a Fed rate hike by September 2026 remain above 44%. These real risk-off events remain present on the horizon, and the positive data for the week do not confirm a change in trend.
The Road Ahead
The article concludes by highlighting the need for caution in the market, despite the improving outlook. The author notes that the Fear & Greed Index is still in 'Fear' territory, and that the market is still vulnerable to geopolitical headwinds. The article ends by emphasizing the importance of conducting independent research and not relying solely on the author's opinions.
Key points
- Bitcoin's spot and futures cumulative volume delta confirmed a $925 million net buying day.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs added $107.7 million in net inflows on July 15.
- The Fear & Greed Index still sits in 'Fear' territory, despite Bitcoin's roughly 4.4% bounce off its recent $62,100 low.
- Funding is cooling toward neutral, and spot ETF flows remain negative for the year.
- A cluster of long liquidations sits roughly 1.5% below the current price ($63,200).
If the current trend continues, Bitcoin's price could potentially push higher, driven by improving onchain buying pressure and ETF inflows. However, this would require a sustained shift in market sentiment, with the Fear & Greed Index moving out of 'Fear' territory.
The current market is still vulnerable to geopolitical headwinds, including the US war in Iran and the potential for a Fed rate hike. If these risks materialize, Bitcoin's price could decline, driven by a decrease in buying pressure and an increase in selling pressure.
