Bitcoin's Wild Swings Go Quiet, Even as the Bears Won't Let Go
Bitcoin's volatility has dampened significantly, according to new VanEck research. The asset's 30-day realized volatility has fallen to 27.2% annualized, down from 30.4% the prior month.
Intelligence analysis by Llama
Bitcoin's volatility has decreased, with 30-day realized volatility falling to 27.2% annualized. This is an unusual stillness for a market that typically experiences double-digit daily swings.
Imagine you're at a big party, and everyone is usually running around and having fun. But now, everyone is just standing still and talking quietly. That's what's happening with Bitcoin's price right now. It's not moving up or down as much as it usually does, and that's making some people curious.
Analysis
VanEck Research Points to a Potential Bottom in Bitcoin's Bear Market
Bitcoin's volatility has dampened significantly, according to new VanEck research. The asset's 30-day realized volatility has fallen to 27.2% annualized, down from 30.4% the prior month and less than half bitcoin's long-run average of roughly 80%. For an asset known for double-digit daily swings, that's an unusually still market.
The calm comes as bitcoin claws back from a June low near $58,500, holding inside a tight $62,265-to-$66,509 band through most of July. Bitcoin remains about 9% below its 200-day moving average — a narrower gap than the 14% discount seen a month ago — and still sits roughly 49% below its all-time high.
Trading activity tells a similar story of a market on pause. Spot volume over the trailing 30 days is down 27% from the prior month, landing in just the 10th percentile of its own history, VanEck noted. Analysts at investment firm note the summer slowdown is deeper than in either 2024 or 2025, pushing spot volumes down toward levels last seen in the 2023 bear market.
At the same time, longtime holders have started letting go of coins, VanEck said. Bitcoin held for more than a year fell by about 356,000 BTC (-2.9%) over the month, pushing the long-term holder share of total supply below 60% for the first time in months. The selling was concentrated in coins held one to three years, while the oldest holders — those sitting on coins for more than a decade — barely moved, down just 0.1%.
Coming into a period historically associated with bitcoin's four-year boom-and-bust cycle, VanEck's research points to 8 of 12 tracked capitulation signals currently flashing, consistent with the later stages of a drawdown. Based on the length of prior cycles, the firm sees a bottom potentially forming anywhere between September and November of this year — though it cautions that the historical record of returns following similar signal clusters is mixed, and only shows a clear edge over a full one-year horizon.
For now, bitcoin's story is less about direction and more about the unusual stillness of a market that, by its own history, rarely stays this quiet for long.
Key points
- Bitcoin's volatility has decreased significantly, with 30-day realized volatility falling to 27.2% annualized.
- The asset's 200-day moving average is about 9% below its current price.
- Long-term holders have started letting go of coins, with Bitcoin held for more than a year falling by about 356,000 BTC (-2.9%) over the month.
- 8 of 12 tracked capitulation signals are currently flashing, consistent with the later stages of a drawdown.
If this development plays out positively, Bitcoin's price could start to move up again, and the market could become more active. This could be a sign that the bear market is coming to an end.
However, if the market continues to be quiet, it could be a sign that the bear market is getting worse. This could lead to further price drops and decreased trading activity.
