China puts the ‘squeeze’ on Taiwan with new maritime patrols
China's coastguard and civilian fleet are expanding their presence in the waters east of Taiwan, raising fears that Beijing may be rehearsing a containment strategy that would cut off the self-ruled island from outside trade and assistance.
Intelligence analysis by Llama
China's coastguard and civilian fleet are expanding their presence in the waters east of Taiwan, raising fears that Beijing may be rehearsing a containment strategy that would cut off the self-ruled island from outside trade and assistance. This marks the first time the patrols have moved east of Taiwan in such quick succession, according to analysts.
China is sending more ships to the waters around Taiwan, which is a small island that is not part of China. This is making Taiwan worried that China might be trying to cut it off from the rest of the world. It's like if someone was trying to surround a small town with a fence, so no one could get in or out.
Analysis
A $60B Vote of Confidence
China's coastguard and civilian fleet are expanding their presence in the waters east of Taiwan, raising fears that Beijing may be rehearsing a containment strategy that would cut off the self-ruled island from outside trade and assistance. This marks the first time the patrols have moved east of Taiwan in such quick succession, according to analysts. The shift carries both strategic and symbolic weight for Taiwan. Beijing is signalling that it wants to extend its claimed administrative jurisdiction to Taiwan's eastern waters, effectively surrounding Taiwan rather than only eroding Taiwan's space in the strait.
Why Cursor?
China's coastguard is not a civilian police force, as it falls under the jurisdiction of the Central Military Commission as a division of the People's Armed Police. An aerial view of the outlying Atoll National Park of the Dongsha Islands, also known as the Pratas Islands, 236km (147 miles) south of Taiwan, shows the strategic importance of the area. The waters around southern Japan and the northern Philippines overlap with Taiwan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), which extends 200 nautical miles (370km) from its coastline. China claims Taiwan as a province, which means it also views Taiwan's EEZ as under its jurisdiction.
The Road Ahead
The uptick in patrols is part of China's 'boa constrictor strategy that intends to squeeze Taiwan one coil at a time'. China has pledged to annex Taiwan by peace or by force, and it employs a variety of pressure tactics, from cutting off access to international spaces such as the World Health Organization, drone and fighter jet incursions, to alleged cyberattacks, according to Taiwan's National Security Bureau. Security analysts like Ray Powell have warned that 'law enforcement' activities could quickly escalate into a blockade or quarantine. Taiwan is particularly vulnerable to this type of pressure as an island that imports nearly all its energy supplies.
Key points
- China's coastguard and civilian fleet are expanding their presence in the waters east of Taiwan.
- This marks the first time the patrols have moved east of Taiwan in such quick succession, according to analysts.
- China claims Taiwan as a province, which means it also views Taiwan's EEZ as under its jurisdiction.
- The uptick in patrols is part of China's 'boa constrictor strategy that intends to squeeze Taiwan one coil at a time'.
- Security analysts like Ray Powell have warned that 'law enforcement' activities could quickly escalate into a blockade or quarantine.
If China's intentions are to extend its claimed administrative jurisdiction to Taiwan's eastern waters, it could lead to a more stable and predictable relationship between the two sides. This could also lead to increased economic cooperation and trade between Taiwan and China.
If China's 'boa constrictor strategy' continues to squeeze Taiwan, it could lead to a blockade or quarantine, which would severely impact Taiwan's economy and way of life. This could also lead to increased tensions and conflict between the two sides.
