China’s view of Trump’s America has changed from alarm to a shrug
China's view of Trump's America has shifted from alarm to a shrug, with Chinese scholars now seeing his approach as a negotiating tactic rather than a crusade. This shift is due to the US's bipartisan hostility towards China, which has led to a price tag that China finds …
Intelligence analysis by Llama
China's view of Trump's America has changed from alarm to a shrug, with Chinese scholars now seeing his approach as a negotiating tactic rather than a crusade. This shift is due to the US's bipartisan hostility towards China, which has led to a price tag that China finds reassuring. Chinese scholars now see Trump as undermining America's alliance system and gutting America's contribut…
Imagine you're playing a game with a friend. You both agree on the rules, but then one friend starts changing the rules to suit their own needs. That's what's happening with the US and China. The US is changing the rules to suit their own needs, and China is adapting to the new rules. This is making it harder for the US to contain China's growth and development.
Analysis
Trump's Transactional Approach Exposes Domestic Governance Flaws and Limits of Washington's Containment Strategy
Wang Wen, a professor and executive dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China, notes that China's view of Trump's America has changed from alarm to a shrug. This shift is due to the US's bipartisan hostility towards China, which has led to a price tag that China finds reassuring. Trump's approach is seen as a negotiating tactic rather than a crusade, leaving room to manage the relationship.
Four things now count as consensus among Chinese scholars. One, Trump is undermining America's alliance system. His first term rattled Washington's furniture. His second is dismantling the house. He has purged the civil service, stretched executive power, taxed friend and foe alike, and gutted America's contribution to global public goods. He appears to be governing for the next election, not the next generation – and this is speeding up the arrival of a multipolar world.
Two, hostility to China is bipartisan in Washington, but Trump's version comes with a price tag, which we find oddly reassuring. When tariffs on Chinese goods hit 145 per cent last year, American retailers, farmers and manufacturers howled, inflation bit and the White House backed into a truce. The lesson we draw: his toughness is a negotiating tactic, not a crusade. That leaves room to manage the relationship.
Three, pressure has been a poor substitute for actual containment. The 2018 trade war spooked Chinese firms. By 2026, the mood has flipped. Turns out sanctions are quite good at building the thing they're meant to prevent. Chinese chipmakers have scaled up mature 28-nanometre production. Home-grown chip-design software now holds a quarter of the domestic market. Solar panels and electric vehicles have found new buyers across Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. America's share of China's trade shrank.
The Limits of Washington's Containment Strategy
Wang Wen notes that pressure has been a poor substitute for actual containment. The 2018 trade war spooked Chinese firms. By 2026, the mood has flipped. Turns out sanctions are quite good at building the thing they're meant to prevent. Chinese chipmakers have scaled up mature 28-nanometre production. Home-grown chip-design software now holds a quarter of the domestic market. Solar panels and electric vehicles have found new buyers across Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. America's share of China's trade shrank.
The Flaws in Trump's Domestic Governance
Wang Wen notes that Trump's approach is exposing domestic governance flaws and the limits of Washington's containment strategy. He has purged the civil service, stretched executive power, taxed friend and foe alike, and gutted America's contribution to global public goods. He appears to be governing for the next election, not the next generation – and this is speeding up the arrival of a multipolar world.
Key points
- China's view of Trump's America has changed from alarm to a shrug
- Trump's approach is seen as a negotiating tactic rather than a crusade
- Hostility to China is bipartisan in Washington, but Trump's version comes with a price tag
- Pressure has been a poor substitute for actual containment
- Chinese chipmakers have scaled up mature 28-nanometre production
- Home-grown chip-design software now holds a quarter of the domestic market
- Solar panels and electric vehicles have found new buyers across Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Latin America
If Trump's approach continues, it could lead to a more multipolar world, where multiple countries have equal influence. This could be beneficial for China, as it would allow them to focus on their own development and growth, rather than being constrained by the US.
However, if Trump's approach continues, it could also lead to a more fragmented and unstable world. The US's bipartisan hostility towards China could lead to a breakdown in relations, and the use of sanctions and tariffs could harm both countries' economies.
