Crypto Long & Short: Six signs a crypto winter is ending
Crypto Long & Short: Six signs a crypto winter is ending. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's Denny Galindo checks how many are flashing now.
Intelligence analysis by Qwen 2.5 (3B)
Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's Denny Galindo discusses six signs that indicate the end of a crypto winter, including cycle length, exchange and institutional stress, drawdowns, difficulty, thermocap multiple, and price action.
Crypto Long & Short is a newsletter that looks at six signs that show the end of a crypto winter. These signs include things like when major exchanges close, how much Bitcoin's price has dropped, and how difficult it is to mine Bitcoin. These signs can help people who invest in Bitcoin know when it might be a good time to buy.
Analysis
Indicator 1: Cycle Length
Historically, crypto spring has begun 17 months before the supply halving or 12 to 14 months from the prior peak. September is 17 months before the next halving and 11 months from the prior peak.
Indicator 2: Exchange and Institutional Stress
Major exchanges have failed or closed just before crypto spring begins. BitMEX announced in July that it would close in September.
Indicator 3: Drawdowns
Bitcoin's drawdown of 53% may be sufficient to count as a sign, but remains shallower than those of previous crypto winters.
Indicator 4: Bitcoin Difficulty
An indicator of how hard it is to mine a bitcoin, difficulty typically declines at the end of a crypto winter and then increases to mark crypto spring. While difficulty has declined, it has not yet rebounded.
Indicator 5: Thermocap Multiple
The thermocap multiple is a measure like price to book that compares bitcoin's market capitalization to the cumulative dollar value ever paid to miners, with each coin valued at its market price when it was mined. Prior crypto winters ended at single-digit multiples, but this cycle it only declined to 13 times, according to Glassnode data as of June 30, 2026.
Indicator 6: Price Action
A 50% rally from the low has historically coincided with prior market troughs, although no such relationship guarantees future outcomes.
Key points
- Major exchanges have failed or closed just before crypto spring begins
- Bitcoin's difficulty has declined but has not yet rebounded
- Bitcoin's thermocap multiple has declined to 13 times, according to Glassnode data
The next cycle could bring a new high for Bitcoin before the next halving, and AI might not replace crypto as the leading speculative technology story.
The signs of a new crypto spring might not be enough to guarantee a new high for Bitcoin before the next halving, and AI could continue to be the dominant growth story in the market.
