Diesel prices in NI at highest level since Iran war began

193.3p

Diesel prices in Northern Ireland have climbed to an average of 193.3p per litre, marking their highest point since the onset of the Iran conflict. This figure, while significant, remains below the all-time record of 197.2p per litre observed in the summer of 2022, which followed Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. However, some individual filling stations have already surpassed the £2 per litre threshold, indicating the intensity of the current price pressures.

Before the US-Israeli attack on Iran in February, the average cost of a litre of diesel was considerably lower, at approximately 132p. This stark difference highlights the rapid and substantial increase in fuel costs directly linked to the geopolitical events in the Middle East. Petrol prices have also seen a similar upward trend, reaching a post-Iran war high of 167.2p a litre, up from about 124p before the conflict, though still below its 2022 peak.

Donald Trump

US President Donald Trump has indicated that he is considering several measures to address rising fuel costs, including potentially calling on European countries to release some of their diesel reserves. More significantly, he is also contemplating a ban on US exports of diesel, a move that could have profound implications for global fuel markets. Such a ban is intended to bring down domestic prices for American drivers facing higher costs.

However, experts caution that a US export ban would likely intensify pressure on diesel prices in other countries, particularly those heavily reliant on US imports, unless alternative supplies can be secured. The United States is a crucial global supplier, exporting between 1.2 and 1.5 million barrels of diesel daily. This potential policy shift underscores the interconnectedness of global energy markets and the far-reaching consequences of major producing nations' domestic policies.

Northern Ireland

Motorists in Northern Ireland exhibit a higher reliance on diesel compared to other parts of the UK, according to data from the Department for Transport. Over half of private cars on Northern Ireland's roads are diesel-powered, a notable contrast to the UK average of just one-third. This greater dependency makes the region particularly susceptible to fluctuations in diesel prices, impacting a larger proportion of its driving population and potentially increasing the overall cost of living.

Despite this reliance, sales of new diesel cars in Northern Ireland have been declining sharply in recent years, mirroring a broader trend across the UK as consumers shift towards more fuel-efficient or alternative-fuel vehicles. The UK as a whole also faces a structural deficit in diesel production, with its refineries not producing enough to meet national demand. Over half of the UK's diesel is imported, with a significant 31% of these imports originating from the US, further highlighting the vulnerability to international supply disruptions and policy changes like those proposed by President Trump.