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Doomsday Climate Scenarios Were Wrong. That Doesn’t Help Europe.

Scientists scrapped the most extreme climate scenarios due to lack of evidence, but Europeans are still suffering from record-breaking heat waves.

By Jason Bordoff and Noah Kaufman·Jun 30·foreignpolicy.com·1 min read

Intelligence analysis by Qwen 2.5 (3B)

Doomsday Climate Scenarios Were Wrong. That Doesn’t Help Europe.
Image: foreignpolicy.com

Climate researchers have revised their worst-case scenario for global warming. However, European countries continue to experience severe heatwaves that strain infrastructure and public health systems.

Why it matters

This story highlights the ongoing challenges faced by Europe in addressing climate change despite scientific reassessments.

Scientists used to think that global warming would be really bad. But now they're not so sure anymore. Still, Europe is having very hot weather that's making things hard for people.

Analysis

{"# The Climate Scenario Shift":"> In May, scientists scrapped the most extreme pathway for global warming used in academic research. This shift was met with skepticism from some climate critics and supporters alike.",">

Economic Implications of Climate Change":"> Despite the reassessment, economic studies suggest that climate change could cost the global economy $38 trillion by midcentury. However, these estimates are based on assumptions about future emissions scenarios.",">

European Heatwave Impact":"> Europe has been experiencing record-breaking heat waves, leading to increased mortality rates and strain on energy systems. The Economist estimated up to 12,000 excess deaths in three days due to extreme heat.",">

Future Uncertainty":"> While the reassessment of climate scenarios is a step forward, there remains significant uncertainty about how much worse climate change may become and where its effects will compound."}

Key points

  • Scientists revised their worst-case scenario for global warming.
  • Europe is experiencing severe heatwaves that strain infrastructure and public health systems.
  • There remains uncertainty about future climate impacts and adaptation strategies.
The Upside

The reassessment of climate scenarios may lead to more realistic and effective policies. Europe can still take steps to prepare for future heatwaves and other climate impacts.

The Downside

Without a clear understanding of how much worse climate change might become, Europe will face significant challenges in the coming years.

Originally reported at

foreignpolicy.com

Discernion covers the story. Read the full piece at the source.

Tagsclimate-changeeuropeglobal-warming

Author

Jason Bordoff and Noah Kaufman

Intelligence analysis by

Qwen 2.5 (3B)

Published

Jun 30, 2026

Source

foreignpolicy.com

Share

Topics

climate-changeeuropeglobal-warming

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