East of the DRC: M23 Becomes Main Perpetrator of Violence Against Civilians, Kivu Security Barometer Reports

Shifting Dynamics of Violence

The Kivu Security Barometer's latest report for June 2026 indicates a complex and concerning shift in the security landscape of eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. While the overall number of security incidents saw a 19% reduction across Ituri, North Kivu, and South Kivu provinces, this statistical improvement does not reflect a better reality for civilians. Instead, the nature of the violence has recomposed, with specific armed groups intensifying their targeting of non-combatants. This suggests that while the frequency of clashes or minor incidents might have decreased, the lethality and direct impact on civilian lives have worsened due to the actions of particular actors.

The report, a collaborative effort by the Congolese institute Ebuteli, meticulously tracks security incidents, providing crucial data for understanding the evolving conflict. Its findings challenge a simplistic interpretation of declining incident numbers, revealing that such figures can mask a more insidious and concentrated form of violence. The focus on civilian casualties as a key metric offers a more accurate picture of the humanitarian crisis, emphasizing that security is not merely about the absence of conflict but the protection of human life.

M23's Resurgence and ADF's Expansion

A critical finding of the report is the re-emergence of the M23 rebel group as the deadliest armed actor in June. The group is attributed with the deaths of at least 114 civilians and the abduction of 17 others, primarily in the Masisi and Rutshuru territories. These acts are often described as reprisals against local populations suspected of collaborating with rival groups like the Wazalendo or FDLR, indicating a deliberate strategy of terror and control. This resurgence is particularly alarming given previous efforts to contain or neutralize the M23, suggesting a failure of current security and diplomatic initiatives to protect civilians from their renewed aggression.

Concurrently, the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) continue to pose a significant threat, despite a reported decrease in civilian deaths attributed to them compared to May. The ADF are noted for expanding their operational reach beyond their traditional strongholds, extending their attacks into new areas such as the Haut-Uélé province. This geographical expansion indicates a persistent and adaptable insurgency, complicating efforts to contain them and spreading insecurity to previously less affected regions. The dual threat from M23's intensified civilian targeting and ADF's territorial expansion presents a formidable challenge to peace and stability in the region.

Divergent Trends and Political Maneuvers

The report also highlights divergent trends among other armed groups. In Ituri, violence linked to the Convention for the Popular Revolution (CRP) has reportedly decreased following a ceasefire announced in May. This positive development is attributed to ongoing discussions between the CRP and the Congolese government, mediated by Uganda, offering a glimmer of hope for peaceful resolution in that specific area. Such negotiations, if successful, could serve as a model for de-escalation with other groups, though their long-term efficacy remains to be seen.

In contrast, Codeco, another armed group, has announced its transformation into a politico-military movement, signaling a shift in its strategy towards seeking political recognition. This move could either open avenues for political dialogue or further complicate the security landscape by legitimizing an armed entity. The varied responses and evolving strategies of these groups underscore the fragmented and complex nature of the conflict in eastern DRC, where military operations, diplomatic engagements, and political aspirations intertwine, making a comprehensive and lasting peace elusive.