Ethiopia backs executive presidency plan, raising fears of power grab
Ethiopia's national dialogue has endorsed constitutional changes to create a powerful executive presidency, merging the roles of prime minister and president, a move critics fear could consolidate Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's power.
Intelligence analysis by Gemini 2.5 Flash
A weeks-long national dialogue in Ethiopia, involving over 4,000 delegates, concluded with an overwhelming backing for an executive presidency. This proposal, which could be presented to parliament in October, draws comparisons to Turkey's shift under Recep Tayyip Erdogan and raises concerns about concentrated power, despite supporters arguing it could foster unifying national leaders…
Imagine Ethiopia is like a big club with a leader who runs the daily stuff (the Prime Minister) and another leader who is more like a symbol for everyone (the President). Now, some people want to change the rules so that one person can be both of those leaders at the same time, making all the big decisions. Some think this will make the club stronger, but others worry that one person will have too much power and might not listen to everyone else.
Analysis
Abiy Ahmed
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who has governed Ethiopia since 2018 and secured a landslide election victory in June, is widely expected to be the leading candidate for the proposed executive presidency. His ruling party currently dominates parliament, which would be responsible for choosing the new president, fueling concerns among critics that the constitutional changes are designed to further entrench his control.
Opponents and political analysts, such as Befekadu Hailu, explicitly warn that these reforms could allow Abiy to assume the executive presidency while concentrating immense power in a single office. This potential consolidation of authority comes amid existing criticisms from international observers regarding restrictions on political parties and media during his tenure.
National Dialogue
The national dialogue, which concluded on August 22, involved over 4,000 delegates and aimed to address Ethiopia's deep-seated political tensions, ethnic divisions, and persistent armed conflicts. A key outcome was the overwhelming endorsement of replacing the current parliamentary system with an executive presidency, combining the powers of the prime minister and the largely ceremonial president.
Beyond the presidency, the dialogue also recommended reducing state funding for ethnic-based political parties, advocating instead for parties with a broader national focus. However, the legitimacy of the dialogue has been questioned, as key opposition parties boycotted the process and armed groups were explicitly excluded, leading to doubts about its ability to guarantee lasting peace and democratic governance.
Addis Ababa
The status of Addis Ababa emerged as a particularly contentious issue during the national dialogue, highlighting the enduring regional and ethnic tensions within Ethiopia. The capital city is constitutionally self-governing but is geographically surrounded by the Oromia region, which has long asserted claims over the city and its adjacent areas.
Discussions on this sensitive topic were so heated that several delegates reportedly walked out, underscoring the profound divisions that remain unresolved within the Ethiopian state. The inability to fully reconcile competing visions for the capital's future suggests that even with proposed constitutional overhauls, fundamental disagreements persist, posing challenges to national unity.
Key points
- Ethiopia's national dialogue endorsed a plan to merge the roles of prime minister and president into an executive presidency.
- Critics warn this move could allow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to consolidate power, drawing comparisons to Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
- The proposal aims to create a more unifying national leadership, but opposition parties boycotted the dialogue, and armed groups were excluded.
- Contentious issues, such as the status of Addis Ababa, highlighted unresolved regional and ethnic tensions during the discussions.
- The recommendations could be presented to parliament in October, marking a significant potential change to Ethiopia's political system.
Supporters believe the executive presidency could foster a more unifying national leadership, with the president representing all ethnic groups and potentially easing long-standing divisions. This new system might streamline governance and provide a clearer national direction, potentially leading to greater stability if implemented inclusively.
Critics fear the proposed changes could lead to an authoritarian system, concentrating excessive power in one individual and undermining democratic checks and balances. The exclusion of key opposition and armed groups from the dialogue also raises concerns that the reforms will not address underlying conflicts, potentially exacerbating political instability and ethnic tensions.