Ethiopia: Resumption of Fighting Under Fire of Disinformation
A coalition of seven armed groups, including the TPLF and Amhara Fano, has launched a new offensive against the Ethiopian federal army, four years after the Tigray War. This renewed conflict is accompanied by a significant surge in disinformation on social media, with RFI…
Intelligence analysis by Gemini 2.5 Flash
Recent fighting in Ethiopia, particularly in the north, has seen a coalition of armed groups challenge the federal army, leading to claims of military victories. However, these claims are often bolstered by old, out-of-context videos and entirely fabricated images created by artificial intelligence, complicating the understanding of the conflict's true dynamics.
Imagine two teams playing a game, but some people are showing old videos or even fake pictures of the game to make it look like their team is winning, even if it's not true. That's kind of what's happening in Ethiopia, where different groups are fighting, and people are using old videos or pictures made by computer programs (like a super-smart drawing tool) to spread false stories about who's winning or what's really happening.
Analysis
The resurgence of armed conflict in Ethiopia, involving a coalition of seven groups including the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Amhara Fano National Movement, marks a concerning escalation four years after the initial Tigray War. This renewed offensive against the federal army is not only a military challenge but also a battleground for information, where disinformation plays a significant role in shaping public perception and international understanding of the events. RFI's Info Vérif unit has meticulously documented instances where old videos and AI-generated images are used to propagate false narratives, making it difficult to discern the truth amidst the fog of war.
Tigray People's Liberation Front
The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) is identified as a key player in the current coalition launching an offensive against the Ethiopian federal army. This marks a significant return to overt conflict for the group, which was central to the devastating war that concluded four years prior. The article specifically highlights a narrative circulating on social media, claiming that TPLF fighters had captured a major Ethiopian army battalion, leading to a 'military debacle.'
This particular claim was found to be based on a video that, upon verification, was taken out of its original context. The footage, showing thousands of men in military uniform escorted by armed soldiers, has been circulating online since at least 2021. It depicts federal army members captured by Tigrayan rebels during the earlier conflict, marching towards Mekelle for propaganda purposes, rather than documenting recent events.
Mekelle
Mekelle, the capital of the Tigray region, features prominently in the current conflict narrative, both as a site of recent military action and as a historical focal point for propaganda. The article reports that a drone strike recently hit a building housing Tigray's official television in Mekelle, underscoring the city's strategic importance. This incident highlights the direct impact of the renewed fighting on civilian infrastructure and media outlets within the region.
Furthermore, Mekelle was the destination for approximately 7,000 federal army prisoners in the 2021 video that is now being repurposed for current disinformation campaigns. This historical context demonstrates how past events and their visual records are manipulated to create contemporary narratives, emphasizing the city's enduring significance in the ongoing struggle for control and influence in Tigray.
Gemini 3
The use of artificial intelligence in generating misleading content is a critical aspect of the disinformation accompanying the Ethiopian conflict. The article details an image circulated on Facebook, purporting to show an Ethiopian army drone, resembling an American-made Reaper MQ-9, shot down by the Coalition of Ethiopian Popular Forces for Survival. However, this image was entirely generated by AI, specifically identified as being created with 'Gemini 3, Google's tool.'
Visual inconsistencies, such as a propeller on the left wing (where drones typically have one at the rear) and two optronic balls under the nose, betrayed the image's artificial origin. This instance underscores the growing sophistication of propaganda efforts, where AI is used to blend characteristics of different aircraft, creating convincing but fabricated visuals. The reliance on such advanced tools for disinformation poses a significant challenge for fact-checkers and the public in distinguishing authentic reporting from manufactured narratives during times of conflict.
Key points
- A coalition of seven armed groups, including the TPLF and Amhara Fano, has launched a new offensive against the Ethiopian federal army.
- The renewed fighting, four years after the Tigray War, is accompanied by a significant increase in disinformation on social media.
- RFI's Info Vérif unit identified old videos from 2021 being repurposed to falsely claim recent military victories by the TPLF.
- AI-generated images, specifically one resembling a downed Reaper MQ-9 drone, were circulated to spread false narratives about the conflict.
- Visual inconsistencies in the AI-generated image, such as an extra propeller and multiple optronic balls, revealed its artificial origin, attributed to Google's Gemini 3 tool.
The pervasive use of disinformation, including AI-generated content and out-of-context videos, risks further polarizing public opinion and escalating the conflict in Ethiopia. This deliberate manipulation of information could undermine any future peace efforts and make it increasingly difficult for citizens and international observers to understand the true situation on the ground, potentially leading to prolonged instability.
