Expect more of those DRAM price hikes as memory shortage continues to bite
DRAM prices rose sharply in Q1 and TrendForce expects another 58% to 63% jump this quarter as AI demand squeezes supply.
Intelligence analysis by GPT-5.4 Mini
A memory shortage driven by AI demand is pushing DRAM prices higher again, with suppliers prioritizing high-margin server memory over everyday PC and phone parts. The result is tighter availability and higher costs for device makers and buyers.
Computer memory is getting scarce, like a popular toy that everyone wants at once. Big AI servers are getting first pick, so the memory for regular laptops and phones gets pricier and harder to find.
Analysis
What TrendForce says
TrendForce says conventional DRAM prices effectively doubled in calendar Q1, with contract prices rising by as much as 98%. The market watcher now expects another 58% to 63% increase in the current quarter, because suppliers are still carrying very low inventories and are channeling incremental output toward high-capacity RDIMMs for AI servers.
Why the shortage is persisting
The article says the supply squeeze is not easing because the top three makers - Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron - are still prioritizing production of high-bandwidth memory for AI servers. That leaves less room for the everyday memory parts used in PCs and smartphones, which keeps availability tight and constrains bit shipment growth for conventional DRAM.
TrendForce also says hyperscale customers have been more willing to accept higher prices, which pushes other buyers to follow if they want supply allocations. The consequence is already visible downstream: The Register says laptop and desktop prices in Europe have risen by double-digit percentages.
What could change
Pricing pressure would ease only if more manufacturing capacity became available for standard memory, or if demand for AI-focused memory cooled. But the article says that capacity additions are not immediate. Micron has started DRAM manufacturing in Virginia and expects initial wafer output from its Idaho fab in mid-calendar 2027, while meaningful new capacity is expected to come online in 2027 and 2028.
The story also notes that SK hynix Chairman Chey Tae-won said the shortage could persist until 2030, though other analysts think it may last until the end of next year. A threatened Samsung strike was called off, which removes one possible disruption, but it does not solve the underlying supply-demand imbalance.
Bottom line
The article paints a clear picture: AI demand is reshaping the memory market, and the near-term winners are memory makers. Buyers of PCs, phones, and other devices are likely to keep paying the bill until more supply arrives or AI memory demand cools.
Key points
- TrendForce says conventional DRAM prices rose by up to 98% in Q1 and could rise another 58% to 63% this quarter.
- Suppliers are prioritizing high-capacity memory for AI servers, leaving less supply for PCs and smartphones.
- Hyperscale buyers are accepting higher prices, which pushes other customers to pay more to secure allocations.
- The article says laptop and desktop prices in Europe have already climbed by double-digit percentages.
- New capacity from major suppliers is still years away, so the shortage may not ease soon.
If more manufacturing capacity comes online, or if demand for AI memory cools, pricing pressure could ease. That would help PC and smartphone makers secure supply and could slow the rise in device prices.
If suppliers keep prioritizing AI memory, the shortage could continue to squeeze everyday DRAM for a long time. The article says some forecasts stretch the crunch to 2030, which would keep pressure on PC and phone prices well beyond this year.
