Fears of return to war as Tigray rebels launch offensive against Ethiopian army
Tigray rebels have launched an offensive into Ethiopia's Afar and Amhara states, forming a new coalition with seven armed groups aimed at overthrowing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government.
Intelligence analysis by Gemini 2.5 Flash
Ethiopia faces renewed fears of civil war as the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) initiates attacks and seizes airports, breaking the uneasy calm established by the 2022 Pretoria Agreement. The TPLF, alongside a newly formed alliance, seeks to depose the current government, raising concerns about widespread regional destabilization and a return to the conflict that previously c…
Imagine two big groups in a country who used to fight a lot, then they made a promise to stop. Now, one group has started fighting again, taking over airports and towns, and they've even teamed up with other groups to try and change who's in charge. Everyone is worried that the big, scary war will start all over again, making things very difficult and dangerous for many people, like when kids fight and break all their toys.
Analysis
Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has initiated a significant offensive, marking a severe challenge to the fragile peace in Ethiopia. The group seized control of three airports from federal police and launched attacks into the neighboring states of Afar and Amhara. This aggressive move has led to the suspension of flights by Ethiopian Airlines to the region, indicating the immediate impact on infrastructure and civilian movement.
Reports from humanitarian and foreign security sources confirm heavy artillery attacks and the capture of key towns like Yallo and Abala near the Tigrayan border. TPLF's vice-president, Amanuel Assefa, explicitly stated that the region is now in a “full-blown war,” confirming that Tigrayan forces are collaborating with local armed groups in the contested territories. The federal army, in response, claimed to have killed 272 TPLF soldiers, though this figure remains unverified.
Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival
The current escalation is further complicated by the formation of a new rebel coalition, the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival. This alliance, announced on Sunday, comprises seven armed groups from across the country, including the TPLF. Their stated objective is to depose the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in Addis Ababa, signaling a unified front against the federal administration.
The Ethiopian government, through Abiy’s spokesperson Billene Seyoum, has accused members of this alliance of long-standing collaboration, allegedly with financial backing from Eritrea. While Eritrea has consistently denied such accusations, analysts suggest that Ethiopia's historic adversary may be supporting the TPLF due to fears of Ethiopia seeking Red Sea access through its territory. This alleged external involvement adds another layer of complexity to the internal conflict.
2022 Pretoria Agreement
The renewed fighting represents the most serious challenge to the 2022 Pretoria Agreement since its inception. This agreement was instrumental in ending the previous civil war between the Ethiopian army and the TPLF, which tragically resulted in approximately 600,000 deaths between 2020 and 2022. The accord had maintained an uneasy calm, but clashes resumed late last year, culminating in the current offensive.
The breakdown of the Pretoria Agreement raises significant fears of a broader regional conflict. Such an escalation could draw in various armed groups from across the Horn of Africa, further destabilizing a region already grappling with the war in neighboring Sudan and heightened tensions along the Red Sea. International bodies, including the African Union and the EU, have swiftly called for “utmost restraint” and “immediate de-escalation,” urging a recommitment to the peace agreement to avert a full-scale humanitarian catastrophe and widespread instability.
Key points
- Tigray rebels have launched an offensive into Afar and Amhara states, seizing three airports from federal police.
- The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has formed a new coalition, the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, with seven other armed groups to overthrow the government.
- The fighting marks the most serious challenge to the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which previously ended a civil war that killed an estimated 600,000 people.
- International bodies like the African Union and the EU are calling for immediate de-escalation and a recommitment to the peace agreement.
- Analysts suggest Eritrea, Ethiopia's historic adversary, may be supporting the TPLF, though Eritrea denies these accusations.
Despite the renewed fighting, there is a glimmer of hope as both the African Union and the EU have called for immediate de-escalation and a recommitment to the 2022 Pretoria Agreement. Diplomatic pressure and a return to direct talks could potentially halt the conflict before it spirals into a full-blown civil war, preserving the fragile peace established previously.
The current offensive by Tigray rebels and the formation of a new alliance pose a significant risk of plunging Ethiopia back into a devastating civil war, potentially surpassing the previous conflict that killed hundreds of thousands. This escalation could also trigger a broader regional conflict, further destabilizing an already volatile area strained by neighboring wars and Red Sea tensions.
