How Arab Parties Can Determine the Balance of Power in Israeli Elections

The upcoming Israeli elections are shaping up to be a critical juncture, with Arab parties potentially holding the balance of power. Historically, political disillusionment has led to lower voter turnout among Israeli Arabs, who constitute approximately one-fifth of the population and often identify as Palestinian citizens of Israel. However, a concerted effort is underway to mobilize these voters, driven by a desire to unseat the current right-wing coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which many Arab citizens perceive as discriminatory.

Gadi Eisenkot

Most pre-election polls indicate that neither Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition "Change Coalition," led by figures like former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, will secure a clear parliamentary majority independently. This electoral deadlock places Arab parties in a pivotal position, as their support could be essential for forming a governing coalition. However, a significant hurdle exists in the form of Eisenkot's stated refusal to cooperate with Arab parties, citing a "lack of shared values." This stance reflects a broader reluctance among some mainstream Jewish parties to engage with Arab political factions, complicating the path to a stable government.

This rejection forces the "Change Coalition" into a difficult dilemma: either backtrack on their public commitments to avoid Netanyahu or find a way to bridge the divide with Arab parties. The article highlights that this refusal is viewed by some, like radio host Mohammed Magadli, as outright racism, underscoring the deep-seated tensions and mistrust that permeate Israeli politics. The need for Arab support, juxtaposed with the unwillingness of some Jewish leaders to accept it, illustrates the profound challenges in forming a truly representative government.

October 7

The political and social landscape in Israel has been dramatically reshaped following the unprecedented Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent conflict in Gaza. This period has seen a significant increase in distrust and hostility towards the Arab minority within Israel. Suha Salman Mousa of the Mossawa Center notes that after October 7, Arab citizens were often treated as "enemies of this country," leading to a more restricted environment for freedom of expression.

This heightened tension manifested in widespread arrests and job terminations for individuals expressing dissent or opposing the Gaza war. Furthermore, civil society groups report disproportionate budget cuts to Arab communities, which the Israeli government attributes to wartime defense and security needs. The article also details politically motivated campaigns against Arab doctors and racially motivated attacks on Arab bus drivers, illustrating the pervasive nature of the increased animosity and discrimination faced by this community.

Bezalel Smotrich

Far-right figures within the current government have actively sought to exploit and deepen existing social divides for political gain. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, for instance, has openly advocated for the "Judaization" of regions like the Galilee and the Negev, areas with substantial Arab populations. He explicitly compares this policy to the expansion of settlements in the occupied West Bank, signaling an intent to alter the demographic and political character of these areas.

Prime Minister Netanyahu's election campaign has also leveraged this anti-Arab sentiment, portraying any potential alliance with Arab parties as the formation of a "dangerous government." Campaign billboards, including those at the entrance to Nazareth, starkly frame the choice as "right-wingers or Palestine." The use of AI-generated videos depicting opposition leaders embracing Arab figures further underscores the campaign's strategy to delegitimize cooperation with Arab factions, reinforcing a narrative that positions Arab political participation as a threat to Israel's Jewish identity.