Iran Boosts Military Strength During Ceasefire with US
Iran's military authorities say they are prepared to resume war with the United States if negotiations again fall through, emphasizing that they have adapted and recovered. The Islamic Republic has said while talks are ongoing with Oman and other mediators to end the US-I…
Intelligence analysis by Llama
Iran's military authorities say they are prepared to resume war with the United States if negotiations again fall through, emphasizing that they have adapted and recovered. The Islamic Republic has said while talks are ongoing with Oman and other mediators to end the US-Israel war on Iran, work on boosting military strength has only intensified.
Iran's military is getting stronger during a ceasefire with the US. They're making new equipment, repairing old ones, and even making new drones. This is because Iran wants to be ready to fight again if the US and Israel attack them. The US and Israel have been attacking Iran for months, but Iran's military is still strong and can defend itself.
Analysis
Iran's Military Strength During the Ceasefire
Iran's military authorities have emphasized that they are prepared to resume war with the United States if negotiations again fall through. This statement comes as the Islamic Republic has said that while talks are ongoing with Oman and other mediators to end the US-Israel war on Iran, work on boosting military strength has only intensified.
The army spokesman, Mohammad Akraminia, said that attempts were made to induct existing equipment into the armed forces and import new equipment, as well as repairing and recovering damaged systems or manufacturing new systems. He also said that new-generation drones have been used in combat, and their specifications would be announced later.
Last month, Iran's acting Defence Minister, Majid Ebn-e Reza, said that missile and drone production had 'not stopped for a single day' and that drone production had reached three times its pre-war levels. However, he did not provide any figures.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the force driving politics in Iran and also launching ballistic missile and drone attacks, has reported similar accounts. IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi said late last month that Iran's missile production increased during the ceasefire, while missile accuracy had improved using the knowledge gained in battle.
The IRGC has not disclosed any information about its stockpiles of weapons, or the extent of damage inflicted against the country's domestic arms production capacities or air defences.
US media reports in June said Iran retained approximately 70 percent of its pre-war missile stockpile and about 40 percent of its drone arsenal – an indication that Tehran could outlast months more of asymmetric warfare in the Strait of Hormuz and other arenas.
Meanwhile, manned and unmanned aircraft operated by the US, Israel and a number of regional countries have carried out thousands of sorties inside Iranian airspace since the start of the war on February 28, while some have been spotted or shot down. Iran's air defences have been degraded, but the IRGC and the army have reported shooting down cruise missiles, as well as MQ-9, MQ-1 combat and surveillance drones and the one-way 'Lucas' drones of the US Army across southern Iran over the past month.
Last week, the Reuters news agency, citing unnamed sources, said Iran could soon receive the first shipment of up to 400 Chinese-made shoulder-fired air defence missile launchers, reportedly to be transited through Pakistan. China and Pakistan rejected the report, while Iran did not comment.
Hossein Kanani Moghaddam, a former senior IRGC commander, told Al Jazeera that thousands of strikes by the US and Israel have failed to deter the force.
'We have been improving domestic production and quality. Our previous missiles have been improved in terms of range and warhead destructive power,' he said.
'We also have stockpiles in our underground missile and drone cities, new parts of which are gradually entering our operational lines,' Kanani Moghaddam said, adding that this was one of the reasons why Trump has repeatedly called off larger strikes against Iran.
Earlier this month, the Trump administration once again threatened imminent strikes on Iran's civilian infrastructure, including power plants and petrochemical companies, in an attempt to force Tehran into a deal. Trump then abruptly cancelled the strikes and raised the prospects of a fresh deal, repeating his pattern over recent months.
But while the US halt to attacks has positively impacted global oil prices and US stocks in the short term, tensions across the region continue.
The Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen on Tuesday said they launched a successful drone attack on the Najran Airport in Saudi Arabia in response to Saudi drones flying in Yemen's Saada and Hajjah governorates.
An India-flagged cargo vessel was also struck by an explosives-rigged boat and was reported to be sinking some 13 nautical miles (24km) north of Yemen's Hodeidah in the Red Sea. New Delhi said all 14 seafarers on the vessel were safely rescued.
Explosions and a fire were seen overnight in Kuwait near the border with Iraq, with some reports saying Iranian drones struck a US military base there. Kuwait, the US Central Command and the IRGC have not yet officially commented.
On Monday, a Liberian-flagged bulker suffered damage to its engine room after being hit by an unidentified projectile 20 nautical miles (37km) northeast of Khasab in Oman.
Key points
- Iran's military authorities say they are prepared to resume war with the United States if negotiations again fall through.
- The Islamic Republic has said while talks are ongoing with Oman and other mediators to end the US-Israel war on Iran, work on boosting military strength has only intensified.
- Iran's military has adapted and recovered during the ceasefire with the US, with new equipment being made and old ones being repaired.
- Iran's air defences have been degraded, but the IRGC and the army have reported shooting down cruise missiles, as well as MQ-9, MQ-1 combat and surveillance drones and the one-way 'Lucas' drones of the US Army across southern Iran over the past month.
- Iran could soon receive the first shipment of up to 400 Chinese-made shoulder-fired air defence missile launchers, reportedly to be transited through Pakistan.
If the ceasefire with the US holds, Iran's military strength could lead to a more stable region. Iran's ability to adapt and recover during the war could also lead to a more resilient military. However, the ongoing tensions between Iran and the US, and the potential for further conflict, make it difficult to predict a positive outcome.
The ongoing tensions between Iran and the US, and the potential for further conflict, make it difficult to predict a positive outcome. Iran's military strength could lead to a more aggressive stance, which could escalate the conflict. Additionally, the US and Israel's continued attacks on Iran's civilian infrastructure could lead to more suffering for the Iranian people.
