Iraq, UAE race to replace Hormuz oil capacity as Gulf chokepoint risks grow
Iraq and the UAE are speeding up pipeline plans to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz as war risks disrupt oil flows.
Intelligence analysis by GPT-5.4 Mini
The article says Iraq and the UAE are trying to build more reliable export routes because the Strait of Hormuz has become a dangerous chokepoint. Both countries are pushing pipeline projects, but the piece says alternatives still leave them exposed to attacks, sanctions, and long construction timelines.
Iraq and the UAE are building backup oil roads because the main sea road, the Strait of Hormuz, is risky. It is like trying to send trucks through a narrow bridge during a storm, so they want other bridges before the old one gets blocked.
Analysis
What is happening
Iraq and the UAE are moving to expand pipeline capacity so they can export more oil without relying so heavily on the Strait of Hormuz. The article says Iraq's cabinet approved plans to speed up crude exports through the Kurdistan-Turkey pipeline network, with a target of raising shipments from about 220,000 barrels per day to 770,000.
Why they are doing it
The piece says Iraq's economy is highly exposed to oil, and its exports have been hit by the disruption around Hormuz. It cites Iraqi figures showing exports through the strait fell sharply in April compared with pre-war levels. The World Bank is quoted as saying oil made up 53% of Iraq's real GDP in 2025, which explains why the country is rushing for an alternative route.
The UAE is also pushing ahead with the West-East pipeline to Fujairah. According to the article, that project is expected to come online in 2027 and would double ADNOC's export capacity. Abu Dhabi's crown prince called for faster delivery of the pipeline in mid-May, saying global energy demand is rising.
Limits and risks
The article does not present these alternatives as a full fix. It says the UAE still has other export terminals, but those routes have vulnerabilities too. It notes attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and drone strikes near Fujairah. It also says the combined spare capacity of the Saudi and UAE alternatives remains well below the roughly 20 million barrels per day that moved through Hormuz before the war.
Bigger picture
The central point is that replacing Hormuz capacity is possible in parts, but not quickly or completely. The article stresses that these projects need major investment, time, and in some cases cross-border agreements. Until then, Gulf oil flows remain exposed to military and political risk.
Key points
- Iraq is speeding up exports through the Kurdistan-Turkey pipeline network to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.
- The UAE is fast-tracking the West-East pipeline to Fujairah, which is expected to double ADNOC's export capacity.
- The article says existing backup routes remain vulnerable to attacks and other disruptions.
- Current alternative capacity is still well below the oil volumes that used to move through Hormuz before the war.
- The piece argues that replacing Hormuz capacity takes time, money, and cross-border agreements.
If the pipeline projects move ahead on schedule, Iraq and the UAE could export oil with less dependence on Hormuz. That would give their economies more stability and reduce some pressure on global oil supply.
If attacks, sanctions, or slow construction keep hitting these alternative routes, the region could remain stuck with a fragile export system. The article says available backup capacity is still far short of pre-war Hormuz flows, so a major disruption could still squeeze supply.
