MiniMax once led Zhipu in Hong Kong’s AI stock race. How the tables have turned
Zhipu has surged past MiniMax in Hong Kong market value after a strong five-month run. Analysts point to share unlocks, model strength and enterprise demand.
Intelligence analysis by GPT-5.4 Mini
MiniMax started ahead when both Chinese AI developers listed in Hong Kong in January, but Zhipu has since overtaken it by a wide margin. The swing reflects investor bets on model quality, enterprise focus and coming lock-up expiries.
Two kids started a race with toy rockets, and one seemed ahead at first. But after a few months, the other rocket got much faster because more people wanted it and the first one had some slowdowns coming.
Analysis
When Zhipu AI and MiniMax debuted in Hong Kong in January, MiniMax looked like the stronger market story. Zhipu, based in Beijing, ended its first trading day on January 8 with a market capitalisation of HK$57.9 billion. MiniMax, which listed a day later and is based in Shanghai, opened much larger at HK$106.7 billion.
Five months later, the ranking has flipped. By Monday’s close, Zhipu, which trades as Knowledge Atlas Technology, had reached HK$585.8 billion, while MiniMax stood at HK$159.3 billion. That leaves Zhipu at nearly 2.7 times MiniMax’s value.
Analysts in the piece say the reversal reflects several forces working at once. One is the market’s expectation that MiniMax faces major share lock-up expiries, which can add selling pressure and volatility. Another is investor preference for businesses seen as more enterprise-oriented, alongside a belief that Zhipu has stronger AI model capabilities. The article also notes that Zhipu benefits from fresh liquidity through the Stock Connect programme.
The story is not presented as a clean winner-takes-all moment. Both companies are still expected to face difficult conditions as domestic and global competition intensifies. That means the current gap may not be stable, but it does show which factors the market is rewarding right now: perceived technical strength, access to capital and a business model that investors think can scale.
Key points
- MiniMax initially listed at a higher valuation than Zhipu in Hong Kong.
- Five months later, Zhipu’s market cap had risen far above MiniMax’s.
- Analysts linked the reversal to share unlocks, model strength and enterprise appeal.
- Zhipu may also benefit from Stock Connect liquidity.
- Both companies still face tougher competition ahead.
If Zhipu keeps improving its models and benefits from stronger investor access, its lead in Hong Kong could hold or grow. The article also suggests enterprise-focused AI businesses may continue to win favor with investors.
MiniMax faces a major round of share lock-up expiries, which could add selling pressure and more volatility. The article also warns that both companies still face intensifying competition in China and overseas.
