Mobilisation fears grip Russians as Kremlin's forced recruitment spikes
Russian security forces are detaining civilians and pressuring them to sign military contracts, amid reports that the Kremlin is preparing a new wave of mobilisation after September's elections.
Intelligence analysis by Llama
Forced recruitment of Russians has surged since mid-August, with human rights groups reporting a peak in detentions and pressure to sign military contracts. The Kremlin is preparing for a new wave of mobilisation after the State Duma elections in September.
The Kremlin is forcing Russians to join the army, and many are scared and trying to leave the country. This is happening because the Kremlin is preparing for a new wave of mobilisation after the elections.
Analysis
Russia's Mobilisation Fears Grip Citizens Amid Election Season
The Kremlin's forced recruitment of Russians has reached a peak since mid-August, with human rights groups reporting a surge in detentions and pressure to sign military contracts. The move comes amid reports that the Kremlin is preparing a new wave of mobilisation after the State Duma elections in September.
According to Idite lesom, a Russian human rights project, the peak began on 10 August, with 14 appeals from people who said security forces had detained them and forced or pressured them into signing military contracts. The project, which helps Russians avoid taking part in the war, said the peak began on 10 August.
Cases in the Penza region have been recorded since mid-June, with men being detained on the street under the pretext of document checks or for drinking in public, at their workplaces, and on their way home. Separately, civilian recruiters are targeting people in financial difficulty — such as debtors and the unemployed — through job advertisements, agencies and personal contacts.
The Kremlin's efforts to prepare for a new wave of mobilisation have been met with fear and anxiety among Russians, with many considering leaving the country. Requests to leave for Georgia and Armenia — countries Russians can enter without visas — and subsequent legalisation in the EU on standard grounds have risen sharply.
The Unified Register of Military Records, launched in May 2025, has made leaving harder. Once a summons is received and a person is entered into the system, departure becomes significantly more complicated. 'There is a high likelihood that their departure will also be restricted from Belarus,' the inTransit coordinator said.
The Kremlin generally does not fully disclose its losses, but experts at the think tank Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimate that up to 450,000 Russian troops have been killed since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022. The average life expectancy of a newly recruited Russian soldier on the front line in Ukraine is 20 to 30 minutes, CIA director John Ratcliffe said on 15 July at a defence forum in Pennsylvania.
The story highlights the Kremlin's efforts to prepare for a new wave of mobilisation, which could have significant implications for Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine.
Key points
- Forced recruitment of Russians has surged since mid-August, with human rights groups reporting a peak in detentions and pressure to sign military contracts.
- The Kremlin is preparing for a new wave of mobilisation after the State Duma elections in September.
- The Unified Register of Military Records has made leaving harder, with departure becoming significantly more complicated once a summons is received and a person is entered into the system.
- The average life expectancy of a newly recruited Russian soldier on the front line in Ukraine is 20 to 30 minutes, according to CIA director John Ratcliffe.
If the Kremlin's efforts to prepare for a new wave of mobilisation are unsuccessful, it could lead to a decrease in the number of Russian troops fighting in Ukraine, which could potentially lead to a reduction in the conflict.
If the Kremlin's efforts to prepare for a new wave of mobilisation are successful, it could lead to an increase in the number of Russian troops fighting in Ukraine, which could potentially lead to a prolongation of the conflict.
