Negeri Sembilan polls: As BN-PN rides Malay-Muslim support to win big, what next for them and Malaysian politics?
The Negeri Sembilan state election results reflect a changing electoral landscape showing clear support by Malay-Muslim voters for a formal cooperation between the Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalitions, analysts say.
Intelligence analysis by Llama
The BN-PN alliance won 25 of the 36 state assembly seats in Negeri Sembilan, securing a comfortable two-thirds majority. This supermajority will allow them to amend the state constitution. Analysts predict that replicating this cooperation in the general elections may even pave the way for a victory.
Imagine a big election in a state in Malaysia. The two main teams, BN and PN, worked together and won a lot of seats. This means they can make big changes in the state. But it also means that the other team, PH, might have a harder time winning in the future.
Analysis
A $60B Vote of Confidence
The Negeri Sembilan state election results reflect a changing electoral landscape showing clear support by Malay-Muslim voters for a formal cooperation between the Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalitions, analysts say. The observers add that this will likely prompt BN and PN to deepen their working relationship.
The recently concluded election in Negeri Sembilan saw the alliance between BN and PN winning 25 of the 36 state assembly seats, securing a comfortable two-thirds majority. This supermajority will allow them to amend the state constitution. The two coalitions comfortably swept the Malay-majority seats by commanding margins, prompting analysts to predict that replicating this cooperation in the general elections may even pave the way for a victory.
Malaysia’s 16th general elections (GE16) must be held by February 2028. At the same time, analysts note that Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition will face mounting pressure following the election outcome in Negeri Sembilan, and similar setbacks in earlier state polls in Johor and Sabah . PH won 11 seats, down from 17 in the last election in 2023, as it ceded control of the state.
Hisommudin Bakar, executive director of research firm Ilham Centre, told CNA that while achieving full consolidation between BN and PN would not be easy moving forward, the message from voters was “unmistakable”. “I believe they will move on forward and come to a compromise based on the desires of Malay voters who have made their message clear,” he told CNA.
The Negeri Sembilan state election served as the first electoral experiment between BN and PN, with the former’s chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi suggesting that the partnership could potentially extend to the Melaka state election due by early 2027. Previously, PH had collaborated with BN in Negeri Sembilan in 2023 after both coalitions formed the federal unity government following a hung parliament in the wake of the 2022 general elections. PN meanwhile is the federal opposition bloc.
Why Cursor?
Analysts say that a strategic electoral pact between BN and PN could heavily reshape Malaysia's political landscape. Independent political analyst Zaharuddin Sani Sabri told CNA that BN’s current partnership with PH has exposed ideological and factional strains within the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), with many grassroots members uneasy about cooperating with PH’s multiracial platform. UMNO is a BN lynchpin party.
He said that PN is a more “natural ideological partner” for BN, appealing to conservative Malay-Muslim sentiments, while easing internal tensions and restoring the latter’s relevancy.
The Road Ahead
The outcome of the Negeri Sembilan state election has significant implications for Malaysian politics, particularly for the BN-PN alliance and Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition. The BN-PN alliance will likely deepen their partnership, while PH will face mounting pressure following the election outcome.
Key points
- The BN-PN alliance won 25 of the 36 state assembly seats in Negeri Sembilan, securing a comfortable two-thirds majority.
- The supermajority will allow them to amend the state constitution.
- Analysts predict that replicating this cooperation in the general elections may even pave the way for a victory.
- Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition will face mounting pressure following the election outcome in Negeri Sembilan.
- PH won 11 seats, down from 17 in the last election in 2023, as it ceded control of the state.
If the BN-PN alliance continues to work together, they might be able to win even more seats in the general elections. This could lead to a more stable government and better policies for the people.
However, if the PH coalition continues to struggle, they might lose even more seats in the future. This could lead to a more divided government and less effective policies.
