No food security without real security
Nigeria's food security is severely undermined by widespread insecurity, with terrorists and bandits displacing farmers, imposing levies, and destroying crops, leading to significant crop losses and increased food imports.
Intelligence analysis by Gemini 2.5 Flash
Across Nigeria's northern states, farmers are abandoning their land due to violence from armed groups, which has caused a drastic reduction in agricultural output and a surge in food insecurity. This crisis forces Nigeria, despite its vast arable land, to rely heavily on expensive food imports, highlighting a critical link between national security and food production.
Imagine if bad guys kept scaring away the farmers who grow your food, or even made them pay money just to plant seeds. That's what's happening in Nigeria, making it really hard to get enough food for everyone. Even though Nigeria has lots of good land and people who want to farm, the danger means less food is grown, and what little there is becomes super expensive, like when your favorite toy runs out in stores.
Analysis
The pervasive insecurity across Nigeria's northern states has created a dire situation for food production, directly linking national security to the ability of its citizens to feed themselves. Farmers are not only being driven from their fields but are also subjected to extortion and violence, fundamentally disrupting the agricultural sector. This systemic issue has far-reaching economic and social consequences, pushing millions more Nigerians into food insecurity and increasing the nation's dependence on foreign food markets.
Katsina
In states like Katsina, the economic warfare waged by armed groups is particularly evident, with farmers reportedly forced to pay substantial “security levies” to cultivate their own land. This practice is not merely a form of taxation but a coercive mechanism that stifles agricultural productivity and profitability. Farmers who refuse to comply face severe repercussions, including attacks and destruction of their livelihoods, making large-scale production an untenable risk.
This extortion directly contributes to the abandonment of farmlands and the overall decline in agricultural output, as the cost of doing business becomes prohibitively high and dangerous. The inability of farmers to operate freely under such conditions means that even with fertile land, the potential for food production remains untapped, exacerbating the national food crisis.
Borno
The insurgency in Borno State serves as a stark example of how conflict can devastate a region's agricultural capacity. Once a state with significant potential for wheat and other staples, Borno has seen its estimated 420,000-tonne wheat production capacity neutralized by groups like Boko Haram. The human cost is equally horrific, with incidents such as the killing of 40 farmers and fishermen in Dumba and 43 rice farmers in Koshobe, near Zabarmari, instilling fear and deterring agricultural activity.
These acts of violence create a climate of terror that makes it impossible for farmers to confidently return to their fields, leading to a vicious cycle where insecurity reduces cultivation, constrains food supply, and drives up prices. The long-term impact on food security in Borno and other affected northern states is profound, contributing to widespread poverty and vulnerability.
Ukraine
The article draws an instructive parallel with Ukraine, a nation that has managed to maintain and even increase its grain and oilseed exports despite a devastating war. This comparison highlights the critical importance of prioritizing agriculture as a strategic national objective, even amidst conflict. Ukraine's resilience demonstrates that with determination and strategic support, agricultural production can continue under challenging circumstances.
For Nigeria, the lesson from Ukraine is that a concerted effort by the Federal Government and state governors is essential to reclaim farming communities, protect farmers, and invest in agricultural infrastructure. This includes securing rural roads, building storage facilities, and supporting irrigation and mechanization. The article emphasizes that without such foundational security and strategic investment, Nigeria's vast agricultural potential will remain unrealized, leaving its 237 million people vulnerable to hunger and foreign food dependency.
Key points
- Insecurity from terrorists and bandits is forcing Nigerian farmers to abandon their fields, directly undermining food security.
- Crop losses in Nigeria have surged from 6% in 2018/19 to over 20% in 2023/24 due to violence and extortion.
- Nigeria spent N7.65 trillion on food and beverage imports in 2025, despite possessing Africa's largest expanse of arable land.
- The number of food-insecure Nigerians rose from 25 million to 50 million by 2021, a figure likely higher today.
- The Federal Government must prioritize securing farming communities and investing in agricultural infrastructure, while southern states must also boost production to diversify national food supply.
If the Nigerian government decisively tackles insecurity in farming communities, providing protection and investing in rural infrastructure, farmers could return to their fields with confidence. This would lead to a significant increase in domestic food production, reducing reliance on imports and stabilizing food prices for the population.
Should insecurity persist or worsen, more farmers will abandon their land, further crippling Nigeria's agricultural sector and deepening the food crisis. This would lead to continued soaring food prices, increased poverty, and greater dependence on costly foreign food imports, exacerbating national economic vulnerabilities.
