Oil flows nearly tripled before US-Iran MoU expired, analysis shows
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz nearly tripled during a 60-day US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), but remained far below pre-war levels before the agreement expired amidst continued attacks on commercial shipping.
Intelligence analysis by Gemini 2.5 Flash
A recent MoU between the US and Iran temporarily boosted oil exports through the critical Strait of Hormuz, reaching 6.1 million barrels per day, though still only 40 percent of 2025 volumes. The agreement, facilitated by Pakistan, expired without a peace deal, leading to renewed concerns as attacks on commercial vessels persist, impacting global energy supply and market confidence.
Imagine a super busy highway where lots of oil trucks drive every day to deliver fuel all over the world. This story is about a special agreement between two countries, the US and Iran, that was supposed to make that highway safer for a little while. For two months, more oil trucks did use the highway, almost three times as many as before, but it was still much less than usual. Now, that agreement has ended, and bad things are happening on the highway again, with some trucks being attacked. This makes people worried about getting enough oil and causes its price to go up, like when there's a traffic jam on a very important road.
Analysis
The recent expiration of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran marks a critical juncture for global energy markets and regional stability. While the 60-day agreement, which concluded on Monday, did facilitate a significant increase in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz—nearly tripling the average daily exports from 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) to 6.1 million bpd—this temporary boost was insufficient to restore pre-war levels. The data from trade intelligence firm Kpler underscores the profound impact of the conflict, revealing that even at its peak under the MoU, volumes only reached about 40 percent of the 15 million bpd seen in 2025. This suggests that while diplomatic efforts can yield some positive results, the underlying security challenges and lack of a durable peace framework continue to severely constrain the region's vital role in global energy supply.
Kpler
Trade intelligence firm Kpler provided the crucial data underpinning the analysis of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Their briefing highlighted that 374 million barrels of oil exited the Gulf during the 60-day MoU window, averaging 6.1 million bpd. This figure, while a substantial increase from the 2.3 million bpd exported prior to the MoU's signing on June 17, still fell significantly short of the 15 million bpd observed in 2025, indicating the severe disruption caused by the ongoing conflict. Emmanuel Belostrino, Kpler's head of Global Crude and Geopolitical Market Data, noted that more than half of the shipments occurred in the first three weeks of the agreement, with flows becoming "thinner, darker and re-accumulating behind the chokepoint" towards the end. This observation suggests that the initial surge in confidence and activity waned as the MoU's expiration approached, reflecting the market's skepticism about long-term stability without a comprehensive peace deal.
Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global energy supply, with its security directly impacting international oil markets. Before the war, approximately one-fifth of the global oil supply transited this narrow waterway. The article details a concerning escalation in attacks on commercial shipping in the strait, with five vessels targeted in the week leading up to the MoU's expiration, according to the UKMTO Operations Centre. This includes a cargo ship struck off Oman, resulting in the death of one seafarer. Such incidents not only pose grave risks to human life but also disrupt trade routes and elevate insurance costs, making transit through the strait increasingly perilous. The International Maritime Organization reports at least 18 seafarers killed in attacks in the region since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran in late February, underscoring the human cost of the geopolitical conflict.
Minoan Dignity
The attack on the Liberia-flagged bulk carrier Minoan Dignity, which resulted in the death of a crew member, serves as a stark reminder of the human toll of the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. The International Association of Dry Cargo Shipowners (INTERCARGO) identified the deceased mariner and issued a strong statement reiterating that seafarers are civilians who must never become targets or collateral victims of geopolitical conflicts. This incident, the first confirmed death since July, highlights the indiscriminate nature of the attacks and the severe risks faced by those working to keep global trade moving. The lack of claims of responsibility for this specific attack further complicates the security landscape, contributing to an environment of uncertainty and fear for maritime operators. The broader context of Iranian forces claiming responsibility for or being blamed for dozens of attacks, alongside US forces acknowledging responsibility for about half a dozen, including a strike that killed three Indian seafarers, paints a grim picture of the ongoing maritime conflict.
Key points
- Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz nearly tripled during a 60-day US-Iran MoU, reaching 6.1 million bpd.
- Despite the increase, flows remained at only 40 percent of pre-war levels (15 million bpd in 2025).
- The MoU expired without a peace deal, amidst continued attacks on commercial shipping in the strait.
- Five commercial vessels were attacked in the past week, including one incident that killed a seafarer on the Minoan Dignity.
- Oil prices edged higher due to market anticipation of further declines in flows and ongoing security concerns.
The temporary increase in oil flows during the MoU period demonstrates that diplomatic efforts, even short-term ones, can positively impact regional stability and energy supply. This suggests that a more durable diplomatic framework could lead to a sustained recovery in oil transit volumes and improved security for commercial shipping.
The expiration of the MoU without a peace deal, coupled with continued attacks on commercial vessels, signals a likely decline in oil flows and heightened security risks in the Strait of Hormuz. This impasse could lead to further instability, increased oil prices, and a prolonged period of uncertainty for global energy markets and maritime trade.
Market signals
- OIL Markets anticipate further declines in oil flows and continued security risks in the Strait of Hormuz following the MoU's expiration, pushing prices higher.
AI-generated analysis of potential market relevance. Not financial advice.
