Polls, FdI below 25%: the first time since the 2022 elections. Vannacci rises to 7.3%
The latest Emg Different poll shows Fratelli d'Italia below 25% for the first time since the 2022 elections, while Roberto Vannacci's party continues to grow, nearing the Lega's numbers. The center-left coalition is ahead of the center-right by 1.5 points.
Intelligence analysis by Llama

The Emg Different poll reveals a decline in Fratelli d'Italia's support, with the party now below 25% for the first time since the 2022 elections. Meanwhile, Roberto Vannacci's party is on the rise, nearing the Lega's numbers. The center-left coalition is currently leading the center-right by 1.5 points.
Imagine you're voting for a new government in Italy. The latest poll shows that the party led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, called Fratelli d'Italia, is losing support. Meanwhile, another party called Futuro Nazionale is gaining popularity. This means that the center-left coalition, which includes parties like the Partito Democratico and the Movimento 5 Stelle, is currently leading the center-right coalition by 1.5 points.
Analysis
A Decline in Support for Fratelli d'Italia
The latest Emg Different poll has revealed a decline in support for Fratelli d'Italia, with the party now below 25% for the first time since the 2022 elections. This decline is a significant development, as it indicates a potential shift in the balance of power between the center-right and center-left coalitions. The poll was conducted in the first two weeks of July, before the case of Roggero, a jeweler who was sentenced to death for killing two robbers and is now seeking a pardon from the center-right. The poll results show that the center-left coalition is ahead of the center-right by 1.5 points, with the Partito Democratico leading at 20.9%, followed by the Movimento 5 Stelle at 12.7%, and the Alleanza Verdi-Sinistra Italiana at 6.0%. The center-right coalition, on the other hand, is led by Fratelli d'Italia at 24.6%, followed by Forza Italia at 8.4%, and the Lega at 7.5%. The poll also shows that Roberto Vannacci's party, Futuro Nazionale, is on the rise, with a 7.3% share of the vote. This development is significant, as it indicates a potential shift in the balance of power between the center-right and center-left coalitions. The poll results are a clear indication that the Italian political landscape is undergoing a significant shift, with the center-left coalition gaining ground on the center-right. The implications of this development are far-reaching, and it remains to be seen how the center-right coalition will respond to this decline in support. One thing is certain, however: the Italian political landscape is undergoing a significant shift, and the center-left coalition is poised to take advantage of this development.
The Rise of Futuro Nazionale
The poll results also show that Roberto Vannacci's party, Futuro Nazionale, is on the rise, with a 7.3% share of the vote. This development is significant, as it indicates a potential shift in the balance of power between the center-right and center-left coalitions. The rise of Futuro Nazionale is a clear indication that the Italian political landscape is undergoing a significant shift, with the center-left coalition gaining ground on the center-right. The implications of this development are far-reaching, and it remains to be seen how the center-right coalition will respond to this decline in support. One thing is certain, however: the Italian political landscape is undergoing a significant shift, and the center-left coalition is poised to take advantage of this development.
The Center-Left Coalition's Lead
The poll results show that the center-left coalition is ahead of the center-right by 1.5 points, with the Partito Democratico leading at 20.9%, followed by the Movimento 5 Stelle at 12.7%, and the Alleanza Verdi-Sinistra Italiana at 6.0%. This development is significant, as it indicates a potential shift in the balance of power between the center-right and center-left coalitions. The implications of this development are far-reaching, and it remains to be seen how the center-right coalition will respond to this decline in support. One thing is certain, however: the Italian political landscape is undergoing a significant shift, and the center-left coalition is poised to take advantage of this development.
Key points
- Fratelli d'Italia's support has declined below 25% for the first time since the 2022 elections.
- Roberto Vannacci's party, Futuro Nazionale, is on the rise, with a 7.3% share of the vote.
- The center-left coalition is ahead of the center-right by 1.5 points.
- The Partito Democratico is leading at 20.9%, followed by the Movimento 5 Stelle at 12.7%.
- The Alleanza Verdi-Sinistra Italiana is at 6.0%, and the Italia Viva is at 2.6%.
If the center-left coalition continues to gain ground, it could lead to a shift in the balance of power in Italy, potentially resulting in a more progressive government. This could be a positive development for the country, as it could lead to more social and economic reforms.
However, if the center-right coalition manages to regain its footing, it could lead to a more conservative government, potentially resulting in a reversal of some of the progressive reforms implemented by the current government. This could be a negative development for the country, as it could lead to a more stagnant economy and a lack of social progress.