SpaceX, Anthropic, or OpenAI: Which IPO Is the Better Buy?
The article compares three high-profile AI-related IPO candidates and says Anthropic looks like the best buy if valuations are similar. SpaceX is framed as a bet on Elon Musk's vision, while OpenAI is described as lagging on revenue and profitability.
Intelligence analysis by GPT-5.4 Mini
The piece weighs SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI as potential trillion-dollar IPOs. It argues that Anthropic currently has the strongest mix of rapid growth and reported profitability, while SpaceX is more of a vision-driven bet and OpenAI trails on the numbers.
The article compares three giant companies like kids in a race. SpaceX is the dream-big rocket kid, OpenAI is the famous chatbot kid, and Anthropic is the kid growing fastest while also making money. The writer says Anthropic looks like the safest winner right now.
Analysis
The comparison
The article starts from the idea that several enormous IPOs could arrive in the same year. SpaceX has already debuted with a reported market value of $2 trillion, while Anthropic and OpenAI are said to be planning to go public later in the year.
SpaceX: big ambition, uneven current profits
SpaceX is described as a company with revenue far below its valuation, but with major upside if its plans work. The piece says 2025 revenue was $18 billion, with most of that coming from Starlink, which brought in $11.4 billion and grew 50% year over year. The author also highlights SpaceX’s AI data center plans on Earth and in orbit, plus deals with Anthropic and Alphabet worth $26 billion a year, though those agreements can reportedly be canceled.
Anthropic: faster growth and profits
Anthropic is portrayed as the strongest current business. The article says it is expected to generate $10.9 billion in revenue this quarter, or about $45 billion annualized, and may reach $100 billion annualized in the near future if growth continues. It is also described as reportedly already profitable, which the author contrasts with SpaceX’s operating loss of $2.6 billion last year.
OpenAI: big user base, weaker financial profile
OpenAI is presented as the consumer leader thanks to ChatGPT, but the article says it is behind Anthropic on revenue growth and enterprise traction. It cites a prior annualized revenue figure of $25 billion, notes that the numbers are not audited, and says OpenAI has reportedly missed its 2026 targets so far. The piece also cites a reported operating margin of negative 122%.
The conclusion is simple: if all three list at similar valuations, Anthropic is the best buy according to the author.
Key points
- SpaceX is now described as a $2 trillion company, but most of its current revenue still comes from Starlink.
- Anthropic is expected to run at about $45 billion in annualized revenue this quarter and is reportedly already profitable.
- OpenAI has a large consumer lead through ChatGPT, but the article says it is behind on revenue growth and profitability.
- The author says Anthropic is the best buy if all three IPOs price at similar valuations.
- SpaceX remains a higher-risk, vision-driven bet tied to Elon Musk's execution and long-term projects.
If Anthropic’s growth stays this strong, the company could keep scaling enterprise AI sales and reach far larger revenue levels. The article also suggests SpaceX could become much bigger if Starship, orbital data centers, and AI computing services work as planned.
The article notes that SpaceX’s upside depends heavily on execution, and its current profits are not as strong as its valuation implies. OpenAI’s reported losses and missed targets could make it harder for investors to justify a premium IPO price if those trends continue.
