SpaceX heads for record $1.78tn float amid fears it is overvalued
SpaceX is set for a record $75bn IPO at a $1.78tn valuation, but analysts warn the price is far above fundamentals.
Intelligence analysis by GPT-5.4 Mini
The Guardian says SpaceX is preparing the biggest stock market float in history, with strong investor demand and a valuation that could make Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire. But the piece centers on doubts that the price is justified by the company’s current business performance.
SpaceX is trying to sell a tiny piece of itself for a lot of money, like a giant lemonade stand asking to be worth a sky-high price. Many people want in, but some experts say the price is much too high for what the business has proven so far.
Analysis
Record-sized listing
SpaceX is preparing to sell at least $75bn of shares in an IPO, which the article says would make it the largest stock market float ever. Reuters is cited as saying the deal is already oversubscribed by three or four times, with more than $250bn in bids. At the expected $135 share price, the company would be valued at about $1.78tn, far above Saudi Aramco’s previous record float.
Valuation concerns
The piece highlights a sharp divide between market excitement and analyst caution. Morningstar values SpaceX at $63 a share and says there is “a major disconnect” between expectations and fundamentals. Its chief equity strategist, Michael Field, argues the business has strengths, especially Starlink, but calls the overall valuation highly speculative because much of it rests on untested technologies, including parts of the AI business.
Business mix and risks
The article says SpaceX is built around three areas: rocket launch and space exploration, satellite broadband through Starlink, and artificial intelligence through xAI. It also notes that the company posted a net loss of $4.9bn in 2025. Morningstar estimates Starlink’s realistic global opportunity at about $129bn, far below SpaceX’s own claimed $1.6tn addressable market.
Market spillovers
The IPO could matter beyond the offer itself. MSCI has confirmed it will apply its existing rules on early inclusion of large IPOs in its Global Standard Indexes, which may open the door to passive-fund demand. Nasdaq has also changed rules that could ease inclusion, although S&P Dow Jones Indices has not, meaning full S&P 500 inclusion could still take months.
Key points
- SpaceX is set for a $75bn IPO at a $1.78tn valuation, which would be the biggest float in history.
- Reuters says the offering is oversubscribed by three or four times, with more than $250bn in bids.
- Morningstar says the company is worth far less than the expected price and calls the valuation speculative.
- The article says SpaceX lost $4.9bn in 2025 and is being valued at about 92 times trailing sales.
- Index inclusion by MSCI or Nasdaq could add demand, while S&P Dow Jones still keeps a stricter rule set.
The IPO’s strong demand could help SpaceX raise enormous capital for its rockets, satellite internet business, and other long-term projects. If index providers add the stock, passive funds could create extra demand after listing.
If Morningstar’s valuation gap proves right, the stock could struggle once trading begins and investors may be left paying far more than the business supports. The company’s losses and reliance on ambitious, untested plans could also make the valuation hard to defend.
