SpaceX's IPO Lockup Starts Expiring in August. Here's Why the Next Wave of Sellers Could Be the Real Test.
SpaceX's IPO lockup releases begin in August, and the biggest early tranche could put more shares on the market than the IPO itself did. The company's Starlink-driven connectivity segment is a standout, but the company's newly acquired artificial intelligence (AI) segment…
Intelligence analysis by Llama
SpaceX's IPO lockup releases in August could put more shares on the market than the IPO itself did, testing demand for the stock. The company's Starlink-driven connectivity segment is a standout, but the AI segment is a concern.
Imagine you're at a big party, and everyone's excited about a new game. But then, someone tells you that the game is actually really hard to play, and it's not as fun as everyone thought. That's kind of what's happening with SpaceX's stock. The company's Starlink-driven connectivity segment is doing well, but the AI segment is struggling. And now, a lot of people who were holding onto their shares are going to start selling them, which could make the stock price go down even more.
Analysis
A $60B Vote of Confidence
SpaceX's IPO lockup releases begin in August, and the biggest early tranche could put more shares on the market than the IPO itself did. The company's Starlink-driven connectivity segment is a standout, generating $11.4 billion of revenue and $4.4 billion of operating income in 2025. However, the company's newly acquired artificial intelligence (AI) segment lost $6.4 billion from operations in 2025, and it posted a $2.5 billion operating loss in the first quarter of 2026 alone.
Why the Next Wave of Sellers Could Be the Real Test
The lockup expirations matter most when a stock is already weak, and SpaceX fits the description. Shares have fallen about 42% from their post-IPO peak of $225.64. And the fundamentals give potential sellers reasons. The company's Starlink-driven connectivity segment is a standout, but the company's newly acquired artificial intelligence (AI) segment is a concern.
The Road Ahead
The first release will show where demand for SpaceX shares actually meets supply, and the tranches that follow will keep testing it into December. If the stock absorbs that first wave without breaking to new lows, that itself could be evidence the selling pressure is already priced in. Investors who believe in the long-term story of Starship, Starlink, and Musk's AI ambitions will get plenty of information over the next several months -- and, quite possibly, plenty of chances to buy.
Key points
- SpaceX's IPO lockup releases begin in August, and the biggest early tranche could put more shares on the market than the IPO itself did.
- The company's Starlink-driven connectivity segment is a standout, generating $11.4 billion of revenue and $4.4 billion of operating income in 2025.
- The company's newly acquired artificial intelligence (AI) segment lost $6.4 billion from operations in 2025, and it posted a $2.5 billion operating loss in the first quarter of 2026 alone.
- The lockup expirations matter most when a stock is already weak, and SpaceX fits the description.
- Shares have fallen about 42% from their post-IPO peak of $225.64.
If the stock absorbs the first wave of selling without breaking to new lows, that could be evidence the selling pressure is already priced in. Investors who believe in the long-term story of Starship, Starlink, and Musk's AI ambitions will get plenty of information over the next several months -- and, quite possibly, plenty of chances to buy.
The company's AI segment is struggling, and the market value is nearly 90 times the revenue generated over the past 12 months. This could make it difficult for the stock to recover, even if the company's other segments are doing well.
