Starship’s path to reusability looks murky after SpaceX’s S-1
SpaceX’s filing suggests Starship may still support Starlink even without full reusability, but that would weaken the cost savings Elon Musk wants.
Intelligence analysis by GPT-5.4 Mini
TechCrunch says SpaceX’s S-1 and a recent Starship test point to a less ambitious near-term path: the rocket may launch Starlink satellites even if it is not yet fully reusable. That would keep SpaceX moving, but at a much weaker cost advantage.
SpaceX is trying to make a giant rocket that can come back and be used again, like a delivery truck instead of a firework. That would make each trip much cheaper.
The article says SpaceX’s paperwork hints that the rocket might still be useful even before it can do that perfectly. But if the rocket keeps getting left behind in space, the trips cost more.
That matters because Starlink is the part that makes money. If each new launch costs too much, SpaceX’s big plans for more satellites and future space projects become harder to pay for.
Analysis
Reuse is the hinge
SpaceX’s S-1 makes a notable concession: full Starship reusability may not be required to launch the next generation of Starlink satellites. That matters because Musk has repeatedly tied Starship’s value to making satellite launches far cheaper than today’s options. If the rocket cannot be reused soon, the cost advantage shrinks.
The article points to a recent Starship test flight that exposed the same weakness. The vehicle had problems relighting the Raptor engines needed for a controlled return to Earth, which is a key step toward reuse. Even so, the flight did deploy dummy satellites and test vehicles, showing that SpaceX may still use Starship for initial Starlink missions before it can land and fly again.
Starlink is still the engine
The business case runs through Starlink. SpaceX says its connectivity unit brought in $11.4 billion last year, and the article notes the company has invested $11.4 billion in the satellite business since the start of 2023, versus $8.4 billion in Starship and launch infrastructure. But growth is slowing: Starlink has just over 10 million subscribers, average revenue per user fell from $99 in 2023 to $66 in the first quarter of 2026, and the company is expanding into cheaper international markets.
That combination makes reuse more important, not less. If each new satellite makes less money and launches stay expensive, the payoff from Starship drops. The article also notes that Starlink faces rising competition from Amazon’s Leo network, while SpaceX’s own plans for space data centers look harder to justify until Starship can reliably reuse hardware.
Key points
- SpaceX’s S-1 says full Starship reusability may not be required for new Starlink launches.
- A recent Starship test showed problems with engine relights needed for controlled return and reuse.
- Starlink generated $11.4 billion in revenue last year, but subscriber growth is slowing.
- Average revenue per user fell from $99 in 2023 to $66 in the first quarter of 2026.
- If reuse lags, Starship’s cost advantage over Falcon 9 may be much smaller than hoped.
