Sudan farms lie barren as El Nino leaves Nile banks dry

The El Nino Phenomenon

The powerful El Nino climate pattern, strengthening in the Pacific Ocean, is directly impacting Sudan by delaying crucial rains and causing a precipitous drop in the life-giving Nile River's water levels. Climate and hydrology scientist Elfatih Eltahir, from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, has studied the link between El Nino and the Nile for three decades, confirming its association with low Nile flow. When El Nino begins in late spring, as it did this year, it significantly increases the probability of drought in southeastern Sudan and northwestern Ethiopia, where the Blue Nile originates. The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) notes that the current agricultural season is unfolding under "heightened climate risk" due to these El Nino conditions, including below-average rains and frequent dry spells.

Farmers along the Nile, like Al-Tigani Fadlallah near Khartoum, observe stark changes, such as an island that typically would be submerged by July remaining visible. This visual cue serves as a grim indicator for their parched crops. Across Sudan, from the northern fields to the Ethiopian border, farmers report that essential water is neither rising from the riverbanks nor falling from the sky. The Blue Nile basin, a critical source, has received as little as half its usual rainfall this summer, with regional forecasts predicting continued below-average precipitation for the remainder of the rainy season.

The Grand Renaissance Dam

The management of the reservoir behind Ethiopia's massive Grand Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile is also a critical factor in Sudan's water woes. Data from Germany's University of Tubingen indicates that water levels at this reservoir were six meters lower this July compared to the same month last year. While El Nino is a primary driver of low flow, scientist Elfatih Eltahir emphasizes the need for "more transparency and cooperation" among Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan regarding the dam's operation. This cooperation is deemed essential, particularly as climate change is expected to bring more extreme weather events, including both floods and droughts, making coordinated water management even more vital for regional stability and food security.

Al-Jazira State

In Al-Jazira, one of Sudan's key breadbasket states, farmers are facing immense challenges that compound the climate crisis. Hassan Ahmed, whose family has farmed for a century, returned to his land after it was recaptured from the Rapid Support Forces to find it ransacked and his trees wilting. Despite efforts to revive the farm, he notes that he has "never seen the Nile this low in August" in his 63 years, indicating the unprecedented severity of the current drought. This situation is mirrored across the country, with 65 percent of Sudan's vast arable land already out of commission due to a combination of conflict, soaring costs, and a crippled market.

Many farmers, initially hopeful, planted their crops only to abandon them because the potential harvest was not worth the investment, as observed by young farmer Mohamed al-Tijani. Sudan's reliance on imports for all its fuel and most of its fertilizer means that costs for these essential inputs have multiplied by up to five times this year, largely due to a distant conflict between Iran and the United States that crippled supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Veteran farmer Ahmed Othman exemplifies the struggle, knowing he won't break even but continuing to work simply to maintain some activity amidst the devastation.