Syrians see Israel as biggest regional threat, followed by Iran: Survey
A new nationwide survey reveals that most Syrians consider Israel the greatest threat to their country and the region, with Iran ranking as a distant second.
Intelligence analysis by Gemini 2.5 Flash
The Arab Opinion Index for Syria 2026 indicates 61 percent of Syrians view Israel as the primary threat, a perception that has intensified since the fall of Bashar al-Assad. Iran's perceived threat has also doubled regionally, while internally, there's growing support for democracy and political pluralism.
Imagine a big playground where everyone is asked who they think is the biggest troublemaker. Most kids in Syria point to Israel, saying it causes the most problems for their country and the neighborhood. Then, a smaller but growing number of kids also point to Iran as a troublemaker. But even with all these worries, most kids in Syria also really want their playground to be run fairly, with everyone having a say and different groups working together, like a team.
Analysis
The recent Arab Opinion Index for Syria 2026 provides a crucial snapshot of public sentiment in a nation undergoing significant political transition. The survey, conducted by the Doha-based Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies and the Arab Center for Contemporary Syria Studies, underscores a clear hierarchy of perceived external threats and a burgeoning internal demand for democratic governance.
Israel
Syrians overwhelmingly identify Israel as the paramount threat to their country and the broader Middle East. A striking 61 percent of respondents named Israel as the main threat to Syria, a figure that rises to 97 percent when asked about its impact on regional security and stability. This perception is deeply rooted in recent history, particularly Israel's seizure of territory in southern Syria since the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024.
Furthermore, 96 percent of respondents believe Israel actively works to destabilize Syria, with 86 percent attributing separatist tendencies to Israeli actions. This strong anti-Israel sentiment is reflected in the 80 percent opposition to recognizing Israel and 74 percent demanding the return of the occupied Golan Heights, indicating a firm stance against any normalization without significant territorial concessions.
Iran
While Israel remains the primary concern, the survey highlights a notable increase in the perception of Iran as a regional threat. Twenty percent of Syrians named Iran as the main threat to Syria, placing it as a distant second. However, when considering the Arab world as a whole, the share naming Iran as the main regional threat doubled from 12 percent in 2025 to 24 percent in 2026.
This rising concern is further evidenced by 93 percent of respondents believing Iran threatens the security and stability of the Middle East, up from 74 percent a year earlier. Interestingly, while 80 percent justified Iranian missile strikes on Israel, 74 percent deemed Iranian strikes on other Arab countries (excluding US military bases) unjustified, suggesting a nuanced view of Iran's regional actions.
Democracy
The survey also sheds light on significant internal political shifts within Syria, particularly a growing appetite for democratic governance. A substantial 76 percent of respondents agreed that democracy, despite its problems, is superior to other systems, marking a 16 percentage point increase from the previous year. Three-quarters of Syrians expressed a preference for a democratic system characterized by political pluralism and a separation of powers.
This strong endorsement of democratic principles is further reinforced by the fact that no alternative system, including rule by Islamic law without elections, garnered more than 9 percent support. Moreover, 87 percent of respondents asserted that no one should question the patriotism of those who oppose government policy, a significant 20-point increase, indicating a desire for greater freedom of expression and political dissent in the post-Assad era.
Key points
- 61 percent of Syrians identify Israel as the main threat to their country, with 97 percent seeing it as a threat to Middle East security.
- The perception of Iran as a regional threat has doubled from 12 percent in 2025 to 24 percent in 2026.
- Almost 80 percent of Syrians oppose recognizing Israel, and 74 percent demand the return of the occupied Golan Heights.
- A significant 76 percent of respondents believe democracy is the best system, and 75 percent favor political pluralism and separation of powers.
- 87 percent of Syrians believe patriotism should not be questioned for opposing government policy, a 20-point increase from last year.
The survey indicates a strong and growing desire for democratic governance and political pluralism among Syrians, with 76 percent favoring democracy. This widespread support for a more inclusive system, coupled with positive views on the end of the former government and the release of detainees, suggests a potential path towards internal stability and reform.
Despite internal aspirations for democracy, the overwhelming perception of Israel as the biggest regional threat, alongside a rising concern about Iran, points to continued external pressures and potential for regional instability. These persistent external threats could complicate Syria's internal transition and hinder efforts towards lasting peace and security.
