The return of the prodigal son? Why speculation is rising over Josh Frydenberg’s future

Josh Frydenberg

The recent media appearances by former Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, coinciding with the launch of his book 'A Grateful Son,' have predictably stoked speculation about a potential return to federal politics. Frydenberg, who was unseated in the 2022 federal election by independent Monique Ryan in the seat of Kooyong, has pointedly refused to rule out seeking a comeback, a stance that has been interpreted by some as opportunistic. His book, a blend of personal history, commentary on antisemitism, and political ideas, offers a platform for him to re-engage with the public discourse. The timing of these appearances, coupled with his youth and evident energy, suggests a deliberate strategy to keep his political future open, potentially positioning himself as an alternative within a struggling Liberal party.

Frydenberg's policy ideas, as outlined in his book and promoted during his media tour, include a remix of the GST to fund income tax cuts, reforms to federalism, and calls for mandatory civic service for school leavers. While these proposals are described as politically inconvenient for the current federal Coalition and the Victorian Liberals, they represent a potential policy direction that could be considered by the party. However, the article questions whether Frydenberg is 'yesterday's man,' suggesting that his return might not address the fundamental issues facing the Liberal party. His current role as chair of investment bank Goldman Sachs also raises questions about his willingness to trade a lucrative private sector career for a potentially less influential position in opposition politics.

Angus Taylor

The resurgence of "Josh for Canberra" speculation is particularly unhelpful for the current Liberal leader, Angus Taylor. Taylor, who took over the leadership eight months prior to the article's publication, has presided over a period of historically low Coalition primary vote numbers, reaching a record low of 22% in September. Labor sources have been quick to highlight quotes from Frydenberg's book and media appearances that are critical of the Liberal party's trajectory and advocate for policy changes, further undermining Taylor's leadership. The article contrasts Taylor's attempts to appeal to the Liberal party's right flank, including adopting a more unpolished communication style, with Frydenberg's potential to appeal to a broader, more centrist electorate. The question remains whether voters would prefer Frydenberg's established profile and policy acumen over Taylor's current leadership, especially given Frydenberg's past success as Treasurer.

Monique Ryan

The article directly links Frydenberg's potential political comeback to his defeat by Monique Ryan in the 2022 federal election. Ryan, an independent candidate supported by Climate 200, unseated Frydenberg in the traditionally Liberal seat of Kooyong. This victory was part of a broader trend of 'teal independents' winning seats previously held by moderate Liberals. The article notes the origin story of Climate 200, suggesting a personal connection between Simon Holmes à Court, a former donor to Frydenberg's fundraising efforts, and the establishment of the group that supported Ryan. This history implies that any potential comeback by Frydenberg would likely face strong opposition from the teal movement and its associated funding bodies, making his path back to parliament a challenging one. The article also touches on the broader context of the teal wave, questioning whether the conditions that led to Frydenberg's defeat still exist.