The United States Is Now a Guarantor of Last Resort
The Gulf states have shown they can manage Iran diplomatically and share the security burden, with the US as a guarantor of last resort. This allows Washington to focus on its real priorities.
Intelligence analysis by Llama 3.3 70B
The 2026 Iran war marked a shift in the Middle East, with the Gulf states taking on a more independent role in managing Iran, and the US providing a guarantee of last resort.
The US is like a backup parent, making sure everything is okay, while the Gulf states are like the main parents, taking care of their own kids, which are their countries.
Analysis
A New Division of Labor
The 2026 Iran war produced a division of labor between the US and the Gulf states. The Gulf states, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, handled the diplomacy with Tehran, while the US provided a guarantee of last resort. This division of labor allows the US to focus on its real priorities, such as deterring an existential strike and keeping naval power within reach.
The Gulf states have shown they can manage Iran on their own terms, with Saudi Arabia opening its own channel with Tehran in 2023. This marked a shift away from US-led diplomacy, which had previously shut out the Gulf states. The Gulf states are now cutting deals with Tehran, with reports suggesting that Qatar and the UAE are offering concessions in exchange for being left alone.
Economic Stakes
The economic stakes are high for the Gulf states, with Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 and comparable national strategies relying on a stable Gulf to draw capital and tourism. The war with Iran put this stability at risk, which is why ending the war became a priority for Gulf governments. A Gulf that can manage Iran on its own terms needs less of Washington's attention, which is the precondition for any US pivot elsewhere.
A More Independent Gulf
The Gulf states are now more independent in their dealings with Iran, with each country pursuing its own policy. The UAE wants reparations from Iran for the damage it caused to its critical infrastructure, while Qatar and Oman argued for dialogue with Iran throughout the fighting. Saudi Arabia expelled Iranian diplomats in March, but kept its 2023 channel open and backed Pakistani mediation to end the war. This more independent Gulf is a significant shift in the region, with the US providing a guarantee of last resort rather than managing the situation itself.
Key points
- The Gulf states have shown they can manage Iran diplomatically and share the security burden
- The US is providing a guarantee of last resort
- The Gulf states are pursuing their own policies with Iran
If this development plays out positively, the US may be able to focus more on its own priorities, such as the Indo-Pacific region, while the Gulf states take on more responsibility for their own security and diplomacy. This could lead to a more stable and secure Middle East.
However, there are also risks that the Gulf states may not be able to manage Iran on their own, and that the US may be drawn back into the region. Additionally, the lack of a unified Gulf position on Iran could lead to further conflict and instability.
