U.S. holds more secret talks with Myanmar’s military-backed rulers in Tokyo, sources say
The U.S. and Myanmar's military-backed government held a second round of secret talks in Tokyo last week, following earlier discussions in Naypyitaw focused on an American businessman's release and scam centers.
Intelligence analysis by Gemini 2.5 Flash
The United States is quietly re-engaging with Myanmar's military-backed government, holding a second round of secret discussions in Tokyo after an initial meeting in Naypyitaw. While early talks focused on specific issues like the release of an American businessman and shutting down scam centers, these meetings could broaden to include topics such as Myanmar's rare-earth mineral depos…
Imagine two grown-up countries, the U.S. and Myanmar, who haven't been talking much because of some big disagreements. But now, they've started having secret meetings, like kids whispering in class, first in Myanmar and then in Japan. They're trying to solve some problems, like getting an American person home and stopping tricky online games that steal money. They might even talk about special rocks called rare-earth minerals that are used in phones and computers. It's like they're slowly trying to become friends again after a big fight.
Analysis
Tokyo
The article reveals that Tokyo recently hosted a second round of secret talks between the United States and Myanmar's military-backed government. This meeting, which occurred last week, follows an earlier engagement in Myanmar's capital, Naypyitaw, just a month prior. The sensitive nature of these discussions led all sources, including a U.S. official, to request anonymity. While the precise agenda for the Tokyo talks remains undisclosed, their occurrence in Japan's capital underscores the country's role as a neutral ground for high-stakes international diplomacy.
Naypyitaw
The initial secret talks, held in Naypyitaw in mid-September, established a precedent for direct engagement between Washington and the junta, which the U.S. had largely shunned since the 2021 coup. These earlier discussions primarily focused on securing the release of an American businessman and addressing scam centers that specifically target U.S. citizens. The success of these initial, more narrowly focused talks appears to have paved the way for the subsequent, potentially broader discussions in Tokyo, signaling a strategic re-evaluation by the U.S. government.
Rare-earth mineral deposits
A key potential area for future discussions, as previously reported, involves Myanmar's significant rare-earth mineral deposits. These minerals are crucial for various high-tech industries, including electronics and renewable energy, making them strategically important globally. Any engagement on this front would represent a substantial expansion of the U.S.'s re-engagement strategy, moving beyond humanitarian and security concerns to encompass economic and geopolitical interests. Such discussions could have long-term implications for global supply chains and resource competition.
Key points
- The U.S. and Myanmar’s military-backed government held secret talks in Tokyo last week.
- This was their second meeting in a month, following earlier discussions in Naypyitaw.
- Initial talks focused on securing an American businessman's release and shutting down scam centers.
- Future discussions could broaden to include Myanmar’s rare-earth mineral deposits.
- The re-engagement marks a shift in U.S. policy after shunning the generals since the 2021 coup.
The re-engagement, even if secret, could lead to diplomatic breakthroughs on specific issues like the release of detained individuals and the shutdown of scam operations, improving humanitarian conditions. Broader discussions, potentially on rare-earth minerals, could also open avenues for more stable economic relations and reduce regional tensions, fostering a more pragmatic approach to Myanmar's complex political landscape.
The secret nature of the talks and the U.S.'s re-engagement with a military-backed government could be seen as legitimizing the junta, undermining international efforts to pressure for democratic reforms. There's a risk that these discussions might not yield significant results on human rights or democratic transition, instead primarily serving U.S. strategic interests in rare-earth minerals, potentially at the expense of the Myanmar people's aspirations.