What CXMT must do to grow global memory market share and build on its surge: analysts
Shares of ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) could more than double as the Chinese chipmaker expands its global dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) market share to 18 per cent by 2028, according to Nomura. CXMT has become the most valuable company listed on the mainland …
Intelligence analysis by Llama
CXMT, the top maker of DRAM chips in China, is expected to expand its global market share amid rapid capacity growth and rising demand for artificial intelligence computing power. Analysts estimate its share of the global DRAM market could rise from about 10 per cent now to about 18 per cent by the end of 2028.
Imagine you have a big factory that makes computer chips. CXMT is like that factory, but instead of making just any chips, it makes special chips called DRAM. These chips are super important for computers to work fast and remember things. CXMT is getting bigger and better at making these chips, which means it might become one of the biggest players in the world. This could make its stock price go up, up, up!
Analysis
A $60B Vote of Confidence
CXMT's recent listing has sparked investor momentum, with its shares surging 466 per cent to close at 49 yuan. The company has become the most valuable listed on the mainland Chinese market, with a market cap of 3.28 trillion yuan (US$484.6 billion), larger than US chip giant Intel. This growth is expected to continue, with analysts estimating CXMT's share of the global DRAM market could rise from about 10 per cent now to about 18 per cent by the end of 2028.
Why Capacity Matters
CXMT's capacity growth is a key driver of its expected market share expansion. The company's monthly capacity is expected to expand from 280,000 12-inch wafers in Hefei and Beijing at the end of 2025 to 350,000 by the end of 2026 and 550,000 by the end of 2028, with new lines added in Shanghai. This increased capacity will help meet the rising demand for artificial intelligence computing power, further driving CXMT's growth.
The Road Ahead
CXMT's growth is expected to continue, driven by its expanding capacity and rising demand for AI computing power. However, the company will need to navigate the competitive memory market and address potential challenges to maintain its growth trajectory. Analysts will be closely watching CXMT's progress to see if it can meet its expected market share expansion and continue to drive its valuation upwards.
Key points
- CXMT's shares could more than double from Monday's close as the company expands its global dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) market share to 18 per cent by 2028, according to Nomura.
- CXMT has become the most valuable company listed on the mainland Chinese market, with a market cap of 3.28 trillion yuan (US$484.6 billion).
- CXMT's capacity growth is a key driver of its expected market share expansion, with monthly capacity expected to expand from 280,000 12-inch wafers in Hefei and Beijing at the end of 2025 to 350,000 by the end of 2026 and 550,000 by the end of 2028.
If CXMT can meet its expected market share expansion and continue to drive its valuation upwards, its stock price could more than double from Monday's close. This would make it an attractive investment opportunity for those looking to capitalize on the growth of the memory market.
However, CXMT's growth is not without risks. The company will need to navigate the competitive memory market and address potential challenges to maintain its growth trajectory. If it fails to meet its expected market share expansion, its stock price could decline, making it a less attractive investment opportunity.
