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Why Poland’s right-wing split may not save Tusk

A bad-tempered split in Poland’s right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party is being greeted with joy by the centrist, pro-EU government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, but it’s unclear whether it will improve his odds of retaining power in next year’s election.

By Renata Mieńkowska-Norkiene, a political scientist at the University of Warsaw, and Mateusz Morawiecki, former Prime Minister of Poland·Aug 10·politico.eu·3 min read

Intelligence analysis by Llama

A split in Poland’s right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party may not necessarily save Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s chances in the 2027 election, as the party’s former leader, Mateusz Morawiecki, has formed a new party and is campaigning separately.

Why it matters

The split in PiS could have significant implications for the 2027 election and the future of Poland’s government, with potential consequences for the country’s politics, economy, and society.

Imagine Poland is a big team with different players. The right-wing team, called PiS, is splitting into two teams, one led by Mateusz Morawiecki and the other by Jarosław Kaczyński. This means that the team led by Donald Tusk, the current Prime Minister, might have a better chance of winning the next election. But it's not a sure thing, and the team led by Morawiecki might still be a strong contender.

Analysis

A Complicated Political Landscape in Poland

Poland’s current political makeup is a lot more complicated than a simple split between the centrist, pro-EU government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk and the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party. Two new parties, the libertarian Confederation and the antisemitic extremist Confederation of the Polish Crown, are battling for votes on the far-right, taking aim at PiS and each other.

The split between PiS and the new Development Plus party, formed by former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, has left PiS with 147 deputies, while Morawiecki has taken 40 MPs with him. The two parties are now campaigning separately, with Morawiecki trying to set up a more moderate center-right party focused on economic growth.

However, the split may not necessarily benefit Tusk’s chances in the 2027 election. Political analysts have warned that Tusk should not assume the split will benefit his coalition, as the Kaczyński and Morawiecki parties could appeal to a broader range of voters by campaigning separately.

The Impact of the Split on the 2027 Election

The split in PiS could have significant implications for the 2027 election and the future of Poland’s government. The Kaczyński and Morawiecki parties could appeal to a broader range of voters by campaigning separately, while Tusk’s prospects depend heavily on the survival of the weakest members of his coalition.

The Future of Poland’s Government

The future of Poland’s government is uncertain, with the split in PiS and the emergence of new parties on the far-right. The country’s politics, economy, and society may be significantly impacted by the outcome of the 2027 election.

The Role of Mateusz Morawiecki

Mateusz Morawiecki, the former Prime Minister of Poland, has played a significant role in the split in PiS. He has formed a new party, Development Plus, and is campaigning separately from PiS. Morawiecki is trying to set up a more moderate center-right party focused on economic growth.

The Impact of the Split on Poland’s Politics

The split in PiS could have significant implications for Poland’s politics. The emergence of new parties on the far-right could lead to a more fragmented political landscape, making it harder for any party to win a majority in the 2027 election.

The Future of Poland’s Economy

The future of Poland’s economy is uncertain, with the split in PiS and the emergence of new parties on the far-right. The country’s economic growth and development may be significantly impacted by the outcome of the 2027 election.

Key points

  • A split in Poland’s right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party may not necessarily save Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s chances in the 2027 election.
  • The split between PiS and the new Development Plus party, formed by former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, has left PiS with 147 deputies, while Morawiecki has taken 40 MPs with him.
  • The two parties are now campaigning separately, with Morawiecki trying to set up a more moderate center-right party focused on economic growth.
  • The split in PiS could have significant implications for the 2027 election and the future of Poland’s government.
  • The emergence of new parties on the far-right could lead to a more fragmented political landscape, making it harder for any party to win a majority in the 2027 election.
The Upside

If the split in PiS continues, it could lead to a more moderate and centrist government in Poland, which could be beneficial for the country's economy and politics. Additionally, the emergence of new parties on the far-right could lead to a more fragmented political landscape, making it harder for any party to win a majority in the 2027 election.

The Downside

The split in PiS could lead to a more polarized and fragmented political landscape in Poland, making it harder for any party to win a majority in the 2027 election. Additionally, the emergence of new parties on the far-right could lead to a rise in extremist and nationalist sentiment, which could have negative consequences for the country's politics and society.

Originally reported at

politico.eu

Discernion covers the story. Read the full piece at the source.

Tagspolandpoliticselectiongovernmenteconomysociety

Author

Renata Mieńkowska-Norkiene, a political scientist at the University of Warsaw, and Mateusz Morawiecki, former Prime Minister of Poland

Intelligence analysis by

Llama

Published

Aug 10, 2026

Source

politico.eu

Share

Topics

polandpoliticselectiongovernmenteconomysociety

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