Abdul El-Sayed defeats Aipac-backed rival in Michigan Democratic Senate primary, NBC reports
Progressive doctor Abdul El-Sayed won Michigan's Democratic Senate primary over AIPAC-backed Congresswoman Haley Stevens, per NBC projections, in a race that saw more than $60m in spending.
Intelligence analysis by Llama
El-Sayed's projected primary win — overcoming $30m+ from AIPAC and affiliated PACs backing Stevens — is being framed as a major setback for pro-Israel lobbying and a milestone for progressive Democrats and Arab American voters galvanized by the Gaza war.
A doctor named Abdul El-Sayed just won a big election in Michigan to become the Democratic candidate for the US Senate. A group that supports Israel called AIPAC spent $30 million trying to stop him, but he barely won anyway. He speaks out against the war in Gaza and says America should spend less money helping Israel and more on things like hospitals at home.
Analysis
A $30 Million Defeat for the Pro-Israel Lobby
According to Middle East Eye, pro-Israel lobbying groups — particularly the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (Aipac) and affiliated political action committees — spent more than $30m backing Haley Stevens in an effort to block one of the Democratic Party's most outspoken pro-Palestinian candidates from reaching the Senate. El-Sayed accused these groups of attempting to "buy" the election through unprecedented outside spending, a charge Stevens rejected. The result, with NBC projecting El-Sayed at 48.7 percent and Stevens at 47.3 percent once nearly 93 percent of expected votes were tallied, is being read as a humiliating return on investment for a lobby accustomed to translating dollars into electoral outcomes. The narrowness of the margin, however, also illustrates just how effective that spending was in making the race competitive in the first place.
Gaza as a Litmus Test for Democratic Primaries
Throughout the campaign, El-Sayed described Israel's military campaign in Gaza as a genocide — language that, per the article, is used by many human rights organisations and Palestinian advocates but rejected by Israel and successive US administrations. He argued that billions of dollars in US military assistance to Israel should be redirected toward healthcare, affordable housing, education and infrastructure at home. That message, the article notes, resonated strongly with Michigan voters who played a crucial role in organising against former President Joe Biden during the 2024 election over his support for the war in Gaza. Mallory McMorrow, a state senator who had been in the race before dropping out, endorsed El-Sayed shortly after NBC's projection — a sign that intraparty figures are beginning to consolidate behind the more confrontational Israel stance.
The November Map and the Senate's Balance of Power
If El-Sayed holds his lead, the 41-year-old doctor will face former Republican congressman Mike Rogers in November in what the article describes as one of the country's most competitive Senate races. The contest could help determine control of the Senate during the final two years of President Donald Trump's term, giving El-Sayed's critique of Israeli military aid a far larger audience than a single primary. "Mike, we are coming for you," El-Sayed told supporters in Detroit. Pro-Israel groups are unlikely to concede the seat quietly: their general-election playbook typically differs from primary intervention, and a closer national race with broader Democratic turnout dynamics could produce a different result than a low-turnout primary decided on organisation and advertising.
Key points
- NBC projected El-Sayed at 48.7 percent to Stevens' 47.3 percent with 92.9 percent of expected votes tallied
- More than $60m was spent on the race, with Aipac and affiliated PACs contributing over $30m to back Stevens
- El-Sayed has called Israel's military campaign in Gaza a genocide and wants US military aid redirected to domestic priorities
- He will face former Republican congressman Mike Rogers in November in a race that could decide Senate control during Trump's final two years
- State legislator Mallory McMorrow, who had been in the race, endorsed El-Sayed shortly after the NBC projection
If El-Sayed wins in November, Democrats would gain a senator willing to publicly challenge US military aid to Israel on the chamber floor, potentially shifting the party's centre of gravity on the issue. A competitive general election could also force national Democrats to engage more seriously with Arab American and pro-Palestine voters rather than treating them as an afterthought.
AIPAC and allied groups have historically mobilised even greater resources in general elections than in primaries, and El-Sayed's razor-thin margin — under 1.5 percentage points — leaves him vulnerable to a sustained spending assault through November. The result also deepens intra-party tensions between progressive and pro-Israel wings that Republicans could exploit in the general election fight for control of the Senate.
