Americans Traded Up to $34 Billion on Offshore Prediction Markets: Study
A study says Americans placed up to $34 billion on offshore prediction markets in a year ending April 2026.
Intelligence analysis by GPT-5.4 Mini
A Coalition for Prediction Markets study estimates U.S. users drove a large share of offshore prediction-market volume, including much of Polymarket's activity. The report lands as regulators and lawmakers debate how these markets should be supervised.
A group studied how much money Americans may have bet on prediction markets outside the U.S. It says the total could be as big as a huge school stadium full of cash, and that raises questions about who is watching the game.
Analysis
What the study found
A new study commissioned by the Coalition for Prediction Markets says Americans were responsible for up to $34 billion in offshore prediction-market trading volume during the 12 months ending in April 2026. The report was written by Rutgers professor and CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee member Harry Crane, and it compared offshore platforms with markets that serve only U.S. users or only non-U.S. users.
The study estimates that 12.5% to 31.5% of total U.S. prediction-market activity may have taken place offshore. It also projects that U.S.-based activity on offshore prediction markets could reach $133 billion in annual volume by 2030 if current market shares hold.
Polymarket at the center
The study says Polymarket, the largest offshore venue it examined, may have had $10.6 billion to $26.7 billion of its $55.6 billion trailing-12-month volume come from U.S. users, even though Americans are not supposed to use the platform. Decrypt notes that Polymarket's regulated U.S. version has already posted around $5 billion in notional volume, though the study did not separate those figures because the data was not reliable.
Regulatory pressure
The Coalition for Prediction Markets framed offshore activity as a consumer-protection and market-integrity problem, arguing that these platforms are not subject to the same customer verification, anti-money-laundering, or oversight standards as U.S.-regulated venues. The article also points to fresh pressure from regulators: the CFTC proposed rules on Wednesday that would ban market outcomes tied to war or assassination, while states and lawmakers continue to challenge the agency's authority over prediction markets.
Senator Elizabeth Warren also pressed the CFTC for answers this week, questioning whether it can effectively oversee the fast-growing sector while its staff has been cut.
Key points
- A commissioned study says Americans traded up to $34 billion on offshore prediction markets over 12 months ending in April 2026.
- The report estimates 12.5% to 31.5% of U.S. prediction-market activity may be happening offshore.
- Polymarket is the biggest venue highlighted, with the study estimating $10.6 billion to $26.7 billion of its volume came from U.S. users.
- The study projects U.S. offshore prediction-market volume could reach $133 billion annually by 2030.
- The article links the findings to growing regulatory scrutiny from the CFTC, states, and lawmakers.
If the numbers are right, they show strong demand that could help regulated prediction markets grow in the U.S. more quickly. Clearer rules and more oversight could also bring more activity back onto platforms that follow American standards.
The study also suggests a lot of trading may be happening beyond U.S. oversight, which could keep consumer-protection and anti-money-laundering risks in play. If regulators and states keep fighting over authority, the market could stay fragmented between regulated and offshore venues.
