'Best thesis' for Bitcoin accumulation surfaces despite current downside risk: Analyst
Bitcoin’s weakest-ever RSI readings are drawing buyers even as analysts still warn of a drop below $60,000.
Intelligence analysis by GPT-5.4 Mini
Record-low momentum readings and onchain accumulation are giving bulls a case for buying Bitcoin weakness. At the same time, some analysts still see room for a deeper correction before a durable bottom forms.
Bitcoin looks very tired, like a runner out of breath, but some people are buying it anyway because they think it may be cheap now. Others think it could still fall lower before it stops sliding.
Analysis
Accumulation is still happening
Bitcoin is showing unusually weak momentum on both the daily and two-week RSI, and one analyst argued that this creates the “best thesis” for accumulation. Michael van de Poppe said the record-low RSI readings support buying into fear, even if panic selling continues in the near term.
Onchain data backs up part of that view. Smaller holders have been active buyers, with wallets below 0.1 BTC showing the strongest accumulation trend score among tracked cohorts. The 10–100 BTC group also showed steady buying. Among larger holders, wallets with 1,000–10,000 BTC added more than 53,000 BTC over the past 60 days, while 100–1,000 BTC wallets added another 12,233 BTC.
Not every cohort is buying
The picture is not uniformly bullish. Wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC reduced balances over the same period, and the 1–10 BTC group also trimmed exposure. That split suggests demand is real, but not universal, and that the largest entities may still be taking chips off the table.
Where the market could bottom
Analysts cited several downside markers below $60,000. Titan of Crypto pointed to a quarterly fair value gap between $56,800 and $44,600, noting that earlier Bitcoin imbalance zones from prior cycles were later revisited before bottoms formed. Glassnode co-founder Rafael also pointed to the CVDD ratio, saying a similar pattern would place a potential bottom in the $52,000 to $59,000 range, with a longer-term floor near $46,000.
The article’s message is straightforward: Bitcoin may still fall further, but some investors are already treating weakness as an opportunity rather than a warning.
Key points
- Bitcoin’s daily and two-week RSI readings hit record lows, which one analyst called a strong accumulation signal.
- Onchain data shows smaller holders and some mid-sized and large cohorts buying BTC over the last 60 days.
- Wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC reduced balances, showing that not all big holders are accumulating.
- Analysts cited potential bottom zones between roughly $56,800 and $44,600, with another estimate near $52,000 to $59,000.
If the accumulation trend continues, it could signal that buyers are stepping in before the next major rebound. The record-low RSI readings may also strengthen the case that Bitcoin is deeply oversold and due for a recovery once selling pressure eases.
The article also leaves room for a deeper drop, with analysts pointing to support zones below $60,000. If larger holders keep reducing exposure and the price revisits the lower fair value gap, short-term buyers could be forced to wait through more downside first.
