Bitcoin’s ‘calm top’ challenges most market bottom estimates: Research
Galaxy Research says Bitcoin’s muted October 2025 top may support a higher cycle floor, with a base-case bottom of $40,000-$46,000.
Intelligence analysis by GPT-5.4 Mini
Galaxy Research argues that Bitcoin’s last peak was unusually quiet, which may mean the next bear-market floor could hold above prior cycle lows. But onchain demand and bottoming signals still look incomplete, leaving several downside paths open.
Galaxy Research says Bitcoin’s last big peak was more like a quiet hill than a wild spike. That could mean the next low might not crash as far as before, but the price may still need time to find a floor.
Analysis
Galaxy’s higher-floor thesis
Galaxy Research says Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak looked different from prior cycle tops because it lacked the usual overheating signs. According to the report, only two of eleven traditional topping indicators flashed, and the Pi Cycle Top signal did not trigger for the first time. The firm also notes that Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio peaked at 2.29, which is well below the levels seen in earlier cycles.
That quieter peak matters because Galaxy argues it leaves a higher cost basis in place. The report says the network’s cost basis sits at 43.7% of the all-time high, compared with much lower shares in earlier cycle tops. In Galaxy’s view, a muted top can raise the floor for the next downturn.
Bottom ranges and timing
Galaxy’s analysis places a base-case bottom between $40,000 and $46,000, using a realized price of $53,600 as a reference point. It also lays out a deeper washout scenario of $30,000-$37,000 and a shallower decline that could hold near $51,000-$54,000.
The timing argument is another part of the case. The article says prior cycle lows formed about 12 to 13 months after the peak, while the current drawdown is about eight months old. That leaves room for the bottoming process to continue.
Why the bottom may still move lower
Galaxy also warns that the floor is not fixed. If panic selling forces coins to trade at losses, the realized price can fall, dragging the implied floor lower. The article cites a 10%-30% cost-basis decline as enough to pull the implied floor from around $40,000 toward $28,000.
CryptoQuant’s onchain view adds caution. It says Bitcoin is sitting in a valuation zone that has often lined up with major bear-market lows, while weekly demand data showed a sharp combined decline of 652,000 BTC across futures and spot demand. That suggests the market may still be searching for support rather than firmly forming one.
Key points
- Galaxy Research says Bitcoin’s October 2025 top was unusually muted compared with past cycle peaks.
- The firm’s base-case bottom range is $40,000-$46,000, with a deeper washout case at $30,000-$37,000.
- CryptoQuant says Bitcoin demand is falling and recent readings sit in a zone often linked to major bear-market lows.
- Galaxy warns the floor can move lower if coins keep changing hands at a loss.
- The article frames the current drawdown as still in the bottom-finding process.
If Galaxy’s higher-floor view is right, Bitcoin could bottom above previous bear-market lows and recover without revisiting the deepest washout scenarios. A muted top would also suggest the market is less overheated than in past cycles, which could make the decline less severe.
The article also shows that key bottoming signals are still missing and demand has weakened. If selling pressure turns into a panic, Galaxy says the realized-price floor can slide lower, opening the door to the $30,000-$37,000 washout case or worse.
