Blame bitcoin's tumble on rising inflation, not Strategy, 10xResearch argues
10x Research says bitcoin's drop below $60,000 was mainly driven by ETF selling after hotter U.S. inflation data, not Strategy's actions.
Intelligence analysis by GPT-5.4 Mini
Markus Thielen of 10x Research argues the recent bitcoin selloff was misread: the bigger force was institutional outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs after April inflation came in hot. He says Wednesday's CPI report will help तय whether the bounce holds or fades.
A lot of people thought one big company was pushing bitcoin down, but this report says the real problem was hotter inflation news making big investors pull money out, like people leaving a game when the weather turns bad.
Analysis
What 10x Research argues
Markus Thielen says bitcoin's slide below $60,000 was not mainly caused by Strategy's actions. In his view, the market has focused too much on Michael Saylor's company and missed the bigger force: institutional selling through U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs.
The report says that since the April U.S. inflation release on May 12, those ETFs have seen about $5.4 billion in net redemptions. Over the same stretch, Strategy added roughly $2 billion worth of bitcoin, which Thielen uses to argue that the company was still a buyer while other institutions were exiting.
Why inflation matters here
Thielen says attention should now shift to Wednesday's May CPI data. His model expects annual inflation of 4.3%, above both the prior 3.8% reading and Wall Street's 4.2% consensus. A print above 4% could strengthen the case for higher interest rates for longer, or even raise the possibility of another hike.
That matters because higher-rate expectations usually pressure risk assets, including crypto. Thielen says bitcoin may be technically oversold and could get a relief rally early in the week, but he warns that any bounce could fade if inflation comes in hotter than expected.
The broader flow picture
The note also points to weaker crypto-market flows more generally. Stablecoins saw about $1.7 billion of net outflows last week and $5.5 billion over the month, while bitcoin futures open interest dropped as traders cut exposure. Thielen's conclusion is simple: ETF flows are the key signal to watch, because they are currently driving price action more than the market narrative.
Key points
- 10x Research says bitcoin's drop was driven mainly by ETF redemptions after hotter U.S. inflation data.
- The firm says Strategy was still buying bitcoin while institutions were pulling money out through spot ETFs.
- Since the April CPI report, U.S.-listed bitcoin ETFs have seen about $5.4 billion in net redemptions.
- 10x expects May CPI to be the next key catalyst, with a reading above 4% likely to weigh on risk assets.
- The firm says weak stablecoin flows and falling futures open interest also point to capital leaving crypto.
If Wednesday's CPI report comes in cooler than feared, bitcoin could get a relief rally and the recent selloff may stabilize. Stronger ETF inflows would also support the idea that institutional demand is still intact.
If inflation comes in above 4%, the Fed may stay tighter for longer, which could keep pressure on bitcoin and other risk assets. Continued ETF redemptions and weak stablecoin flows would also suggest capital is still leaving the crypto market.
