China adds warheads as nuclear powers ‘walk away’ from disarmament: SIPRI
China’s nuclear warhead stockpile rose to 620 by January 2026, while SIPRI warned major powers are backing away from disarmament.
Intelligence analysis by GPT-5.4 Mini
SIPRI says China added 20 warheads over the past year and may be deploying more of them in peacetime. The report frames this as part of a broader erosion of arms-control commitments by the major nuclear powers.
China is adding more nuclear weapons and may be keeping more of them ready to use. It is like a school keeping more fire extinguishers near the classroom instead of storing them in a closet, because leaders think the world feels less safe.
Analysis
SIPRI’s new estimate
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute says China’s nuclear stockpile grew to 620 warheads as of January 2026, up from 600 a year earlier. The think tank says China is continuing to modernise and expand its arsenal, and expects the stockpile to keep growing over the next decade.
Deployment may be increasing
SIPRI believes most Chinese warheads are still stored separately from launch systems, but says Beijing may be putting warheads onto missiles in a few mobile battalions even during peacetime exercises. On that basis, it estimates China’s deployed warheads with operational forces may have risen to about 34, from 24 in 2025.
Bigger silo fields, broader implications
The report estimates China had 775 land-based missile silos as of January 2026, and says its intercontinental ballistic missile launchers now outnumber those of Russia or the United States. SIPRI adds that Chinese ICBM inventories could be on par with those two countries by the turn of the decade.
The report also cites US government sources saying warheads may have been loaded into some missiles in three new silo fields, and possibly aboard a nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine on near-continuous deterrence patrols. In SIPRI’s framing, this is part of a wider moment in which nuclear powers are moving away from disarmament commitments as the New START era ends.
Key points
- SIPRI says China’s nuclear stockpile reached 620 warheads in January 2026, up from 600 a year earlier.
- The think tank estimates China may have increased deployed warheads with operational forces to about 34.
- China’s land-based missile silo count is estimated at 775, more than Russia or the United States, according to SIPRI.
- The report says major nuclear powers are moving away from disarmament commitments.
- US government sources cited by SIPRI suggest warheads may already be loaded in some new silo fields and on a submarine patrol.
If the buildup is mainly about deterrence, it could make China feel more secure and less likely to rely on ambiguity about its arsenal. A clearer force posture could also push other powers to return to arms-control talks before more weapons are deployed.
The report points to a faster nuclear buildup and a weakening arms-control climate, which could increase mistrust among major powers. If more warheads are deployed on missiles and submarines, the risk of miscalculation or escalation could rise.
