Coinbase eyes World Cup boost as prediction markets surge: Bernstein
Bernstein says the 2026 FIFA World Cup could drive billions in betting and prediction market volume, with Coinbase and Robinhood set to benefit.
Intelligence analysis by GPT-5.4 Mini
Bernstein argues the 2026 World Cup may be a breakout event for prediction markets, creating a seasonal surge in activity. The report says Coinbase has already built momentum in the category, while Robinhood is using the moment to launch its own CFTC-licensed venue.
Bernstein thinks the World Cup will be like a giant traffic jam that sends lots of people to prediction markets. Coinbase and Robinhood could collect more fees if many people buy and sell bets on what will happen in the games.
Analysis
Bernstein's thesis
Bernstein says the expanded 2026 FIFA World Cup could be a major catalyst for prediction markets and online sports betting. The analysts estimate the tournament may generate more than $3 billion in incremental sports betting handle and another $5 billion to $10 billion in consumer prediction market volume.
Why Coinbase is in focus
Coinbase has become a notable player in prediction markets after launching the product and reaching more than $100 million in annualized prediction market revenue in March, according to the report. The company expanded nationwide through a partnership with Kalshi, letting users in all 50 U.S. states trade event contracts tied to sports, politics, culture, and other outcomes.
Robinhood's setup
Bernstein also expects Robinhood to benefit. The brokerage is launching Rothera, its own CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse for prediction markets, and the analysts said prediction markets could be the biggest driver of incremental revenue for Robinhood. They forecast about $586 million in prediction market revenue for 2026.
Broader market backdrop
The article frames prediction markets as one of crypto's fastest-growing uses even as the broader digital asset market has cooled. It cites an April Bitget Wallet and Polymarket report that put monthly trading volume near $26 billion and said retail traders make up more than 80% of users. Sports has become the largest category, with March sports activity accounting for more than 39% of prediction market volume.
Regulation and timing
The timing may help. The CFTC issued draft rules on Wednesday saying sports event contracts are generally not contrary to the public interest, even though federal law still classifies them as gaming. Bernstein says the World Cup could turn the slowest period for online sports betting into a major volume driver.
Key points
- Bernstein says the 2026 World Cup could add more than $3 billion in sports betting handle and $5 billion to $10 billion in prediction market volume.
- Coinbase has already passed $100 million in annualized prediction market revenue, according to the report.
- Coinbase's nationwide rollout came through a partnership with Kalshi across all 50 U.S. states.
- Robinhood is launching Rothera, its own CFTC-licensed prediction market exchange and clearinghouse.
- Bernstein says sports is now the biggest growth driver for prediction markets.
If the World Cup brings the trading surge Bernstein expects, Coinbase could keep growing a new revenue stream it already scaled to more than $100 million annualized. Robinhood could also see prediction markets become a major source of incremental revenue.
The forecast depends on strong user demand during the tournament, and that may not fully materialize. Regulation could also limit how broadly sports event contracts can grow, even after the CFTC's draft rules.
