Donald Trump threatens to bomb Oman if it 'gets in the way' of ending Iran war

The 17 June Versailles memorandum

The 60-day diplomatic window that closed on Monday was anchored by a memorandum of understanding Trump signed with Iran at the Palace of Versailles on 17 June, on the sidelines of the G7 summit. That agreement paused hostilities and set a maximum 60-day period, extendable only by mutual consent, for the two sides to negotiate a comprehensive deal covering sanctions relief, Iran's nuclear program, and other disputes. The expiration without a breakthrough leaves the war in a precarious limbo: active fighting continuing, but with the formal scaffolding of the diplomacy having collapsed.

Trump's own characterization of his posture, that he has "no time schedule" and is "not in a hurry" while simultaneously demanding Iran "put up the white flag of surrender," is a contradiction that has come to define the negotiating position. The red line he restated on Truth Social, that "Iran cannot have, in any way, shape, or form, a Nuclear Weapon," is the same line Tehran has long refused to cross publicly.

Strait of Hormuz chokepoint

The strait of Hormuz sits at the center of the conflict's economic logic. About a fifth of the world's seaborne oil typically transits this narrow waterway, and it has been "all but closed" since the US and Israel launched their war in February, according to the Guardian's reporting. Iran controls the northern shore; Oman controls the southern shore, which is why Trump's threats against Muscat carry immediate maritime consequences.

On Friday, Trump escalated further, threatening to declare the strait "a territory of the United States," a claim that has no basis in international law and would mark a dramatic expansion of the war's stated objectives. The economic pressure that closure exerts on global energy markets has been a feature of the conflict for months, and the failure of the Versailles window to reopen shipping suggests that lever is being kept deliberately tight rather than used as a bargaining chip.

The IRGC backchannel

Trump confirmed for the first time that Washington had opened a direct backchannel to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the very organization the US and Israel have been targeting militarily throughout the conflict. The IRGC has been both a battlefield adversary and, apparently, a negotiating partner. Trump's characterization of its leadership as "good poker players, but they're dying" suggests the channel exists under conditions of active combat rather than as a prelude to a pause.

Oman's mediation role adds another layer of complexity. The Gulf nation of 5.3 million people has decades of military and economic ties with the US, has served as a key backchannel between Washington and Tehran for years, and has itself come under attack from Tehran during the war, according to the Guardian, even as Muscat continued to facilitate talks. Iran's foreign ministry said on Monday that negotiations with Oman were "continuing in earnest" despite Trump's latest outburst, a statement that does little to clarify whether the diplomatic track remains salvageable or is being conducted entirely outside the framework Trump signed at Versailles.