'Dr. Doom'-backed Atlas Capital CEO says bitcoin could crash 70% before reaching $500,000
Atlas Capital CEO Reza Bundy warned bitcoin could fall as much as 70% in six months. He still sees a long-term path to $150,000-$500,000.
Intelligence analysis by GPT-5.4 Mini
Reza Bundy, CEO of Atlas Capital and business partner of Nouriel Roubini, argues bitcoin is headed for a sharp near-term drawdown if equities weaken. Even so, he says long-term macro forces like debt, money printing and currency distrust could still drive bitcoin far higher later.
A money manager is saying bitcoin could fall a lot soon if the stock market gets shaky, like a boat rocking in a storm. But he also thinks that over many years, bitcoin could rise a lot if people lose trust in normal money.
Analysis
Short-term warning
Reza Bundy told CoinDesk at Proof of Talk in Paris that bitcoin could suffer a “massive drawdown” over the next six months, with losses of up to 70%. He put a possible downside target in the $26,000 to $30,000 range and said a stock-market decline would likely hit bitcoin even harder.
Why he thinks that
Bundy’s view closely tracks that of his business partner, Nouriel Roubini, who has long argued that bitcoin is a speculative asset rather than a real hedge. Bundy said bitcoin has failed as an inflation hedge and now behaves like a volatile risk asset that moves with tech stocks. The article notes bitcoin was trading around $63,000, down nearly 28% this year, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had both posted strong gains.
Still bullish over time
Bundy is not fully bearish. He said bitcoin still fits the “store of value” thesis over the long run and could eventually reach between $150,000 and $500,000. He tied that outlook to four macro scenarios: steady growth, fiscal dominance and money printing, global conflict, and deflationary recession.
Fund strategy
Bundy said Atlas Capital’s “techno-dollar” strategy shifts exposure among assets like gold, food, real estate and defense technology using AI-driven allocation models. The strategy currently runs through an ETF called USAF on Nasdaq, with about $18 million in net assets, and Atlas plans to tokenize it on public blockchains later this month.
Key points
- Reza Bundy warned bitcoin could fall as much as 70% within six months.
- He said a possible downside range is about $26,000 to $30,000.
- Bundy still sees bitcoin reaching $150,000 to $500,000 over the long term.
- He linked bitcoin’s fate to stock-market weakness, debt, money printing and global conflict.
- Atlas Capital plans to tokenize its USAF allocation strategy later this month.
If Bundy’s long-term view proves right, bitcoin could benefit from rising government debt, heavy money printing and weakening trust in traditional currencies. In his framework, those conditions could push bitcoin into a $150,000 to $500,000 range.
Bundy’s near-term call says bitcoin could drop sharply if equities turn lower, with a possible slide to the $26,000 to $30,000 range. His argument also implies bitcoin may keep trading like a high-risk tech asset instead of a reliable hedge when markets are stressed.
