Heavy rain and storms expected in Australia’s south-east as severe weather warning issued for Tasmania
BoM warned severe thunderstorms could bring heavy rain, flash flooding, wind and hail across eastern and south-eastern Australia.
Intelligence analysis by GPT-5.4 Mini
A low-pressure system fed by tropical moisture is set to drive widespread rain and storms across parts of Australia’s east and south-east, with Tasmania, NSW and Queensland among the areas most at risk. The Bureau of Meteorology also says there are signs of El Niño development.
A big weather system is moving across Australia and is likely to bring lots of rain, storms, wind, and hail. Some places could also get sudden flooding, which can happen when too much rain falls too fast.
Think of the sky like a giant sponge being squeezed over several states at once. Tasmania, New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland are among the places that may get the heaviest rain.
The weather bureau also says the Pacific Ocean is starting to show signs of El Niño. That is a climate pattern that can change the weather for a whole season, like flipping the background settings on nature’s giant weather machine.
Analysis
Weather setup
The Bureau of Meteorology says a low-pressure system over South Australia, combined with tropical moisture moving down the eastern seaboard, is expected to bring widespread rain and storms to eastern and south-eastern Australia. Meteorologist Ilana Cherny said severe weather warnings were active for parts of eastern Tasmania on Wednesday and Thursday, while severe thunderstorms were forecast to move from central west NSW toward Victoria later on Thursday.
Main risks
The bureau warned that the system could produce heavy rainfall, flash flooding, damaging winds and large hail. Cherny said southern Queensland could see storms with damaging winds and large hail, while heavy falls were also expected in south-east Queensland and parts of central and north-eastern NSW. The forecast includes roughly 25-100mm across southern Queensland, 50-100mm through the NSW western slopes, 100-150mm around parts of the NSW coast, and 50-100mm in eastern Tasmania.
Climate backdrop
The warning came alongside a separate bureau update saying there are now signs of El Niño development in the tropical Pacific. The bureau said all reviewed climate models point to sea surface temperatures reaching El Niño thresholds by winter, with an event likely at least moderate in strength and possibly strong. It also noted that El Niño strength does not automatically translate into equally strong Australian impacts, because other weather drivers still matter.
Key points
- The Bureau of Meteorology warned of heavy rain, storms and flash flooding across eastern and south-eastern Australia.
- Severe weather warnings were issued for parts of eastern Tasmania on Wednesday and Thursday.
- The forecast includes damaging winds and large hail in parts of southern Queensland and heavy rain in NSW and Tasmania.
- The bureau also said there are signs of El Niño development in the tropical Pacific.
- Models reviewed by the bureau suggest El Niño thresholds could be reached by winter.
