Hybrid war arrives against Spain
A massive influx of migrants from Morocco into Ceuta, a Spanish territory in Africa, has sparked a dual debate in Spain. The government has accused traffickers of negligence, while the opposition has called it a violation of Spain's territorial integrity. The crisis has e…
Intelligence analysis by Llama
The Ceuta crisis has sparked a debate in Spain, with the government accusing traffickers of negligence and the opposition calling it a violation of Spain's territorial integrity. The crisis has exposed EU fractures and a political offensive against Spain backed by several partners, including Morocco, Israel, and the US.
Imagine a big game of chess between countries. Spain and its friends are trying to move their pieces around, but Morocco and its friends are trying to block them. This is happening in a place called Ceuta, which is a Spanish territory in Africa. Morocco is trying to take control of Ceuta, and Spain is trying to stop them. This is a big deal because it involves many countries and can affect the whole world.
Analysis
A $60B Vote of Confidence
The Ceuta crisis has exposed the complex web of alliances and rivalries between Spain, Morocco, Israel, and the US. The events in Ceuta have sparked a dual debate in Spain, with the government accusing traffickers of negligence and the opposition calling it a violation of Spain's territorial integrity. However, the most compelling debate from a geopolitical perspective is Israel's alleged role in efforts to punish Madrid for its support of Palestine.
The crisis erupted on Thursday, July 30, when nearly 50,000 people from Morocco breached the Ceuta border. Authorities confirmed at least 90 deaths by drowning. Yet, by Friday, Interior Ministry sources indicated over 48,000 migrants had already returned to Moroccan territory. Speculation about alleged Israeli backing for what some media now call a 'hybrid war' against Spain gained traction after articles by pro-Israeli analysts went viral.
They argued Washington and Tel Aviv should support Morocco's claims over Ceuta and Melilla to pressure Madrid. In March, Michael Rubin of the American Enterprise Institute urged Rabat to launch a new 'Green March' toward the Spanish enclaves. Writing for the Middle East Forum, Rubin proposed that Moroccan citizens march on Ceuta and Melilla with bulldozers, cross unarmed, and raise the Moroccan flag, framing it as a response to Spain's 'anti-colonial hypocrisy.'
Morocco has weaponized its population before, notably in April 2021, when 12,000 migrants, including minors, were used as a battering ram at Ceuta. What has changed? Primarily, Spain's international posture: from rejecting participation in a potential war with Iran to its fierce criticism of the genocide in Gaza.
Portuguese political scientist Bruno Maçaes recently highlighted an April article where pro-Israeli analysts urged Tel Aviv to help Morocco take Ceuta to punish Spain. This follows Madrid's recognition of Palestine in May 2024, its arms embargo, and bans on Israeli-linked fuel ships and military aircraft in Spanish ports and airspace. Tel Aviv condemned these moves as anti-Semitic, prompting Spain to recall its ambassador.
In a similar vein, an April article published by the Israeli outlet Ynet by Amine Ayoub, also of the Middle East Forum, suggested Israel could use its Washington influence to help Morocco 'recover' the enclaves. Ayoub argued this would punish a NATO ally for defying US and Israeli policies.
This adds complexity to the Morocco-Israel-US triangle. In 2020, Rabat signed the Abraham Accords in exchange for Washington recognizing its sovereignty over Western Sahara. Israel completed this strategic triangle in July 2023 when Benjamin Netanyahu formally recognized the 'Moroccanity' of the Sahara.
Highlighting this, Morocco recently named a 1,055-kilometer highway to Dajla the 'President Donald J. Trump Highway,' physically asserting its control over the UN-listed non-self-governing territory, despite the Polisario Front's claims for the Sahrawi people.
Clearly, the Ceuta crisis transcends immigration, serving as a tool to condition Spanish and European domestic politics. It has exposed EU fractures and a political offensive against Spain backed by several partners.
Why Cursor?
It began with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's disproportionate demand to 'harden Spain's migration policy.' Rome announced the suspension of Schengen agreements with Madrid, activating border controls for non-EU nationals traveling by air or sea. Poland, Finland, Austria, the Czech Republic, and Denmark quickly followed suit.
The Road Ahead
Who benefits from this crisis? First, Morocco, which champions the 'Moroccanity of Ceuta and Melilla.' Second, Israel, which watches Sánchez's vulnerable government with satisfaction, aiming to influence the 2027 general elections. For instance, Israeli UN Ambassador Danny Danon tweeted: 'Spain, which never misses a chance to lecture Israel, has declared a state of emergency in Ceuta.' It mattered little that Spain hadn't; the goal was to internationalize the chaos. The Trump administration, another major beneficiary, echoed this. The State Department expressed 'solidarity with the Spanish people' against this 'flagrant violation of sovereignty,' adding that the incident was the 'direct consequence of the Spanish Government's deliberate efforts to facilitate mass illegal immigration.' Vice President JD Vance called it a 'lamentable reminder of the consequences of mass migration and radical left globalist policies.'
Finally, domestically, the main beneficiary is Vox. The far-right party, aligned with Trump and Israel, centers its discourse on immigration—especially Muslim immigration—seeking to criminalize the 'other' and promote the great replacement theory and the loss of cultural 'whiteness.'
Ultimately, this episode of hybrid warfare against Spain serves as a stark reminder that political actions are not free, and distancing oneself from the United States and Israel comes at a price.
Key points
- A massive influx of migrants from Morocco into Ceuta, a Spanish territory in Africa, has sparked a dual debate in Spain.
- The government has accused traffickers of negligence, while the opposition has called it a violation of Spain's territorial integrity.
- The crisis has exposed EU fractures and a political offensive against Spain backed by several partners, including Morocco, Israel, and the US.
- Israel has been accused of backing Morocco's claims over Ceuta and Melilla to pressure Madrid.
- The crisis has highlighted the complex web of alliances and rivalries between Spain, Morocco, Israel, and the US.
If the Ceuta crisis is resolved peacefully, it could lead to a new era of cooperation between Spain and Morocco. This could involve joint efforts to address migration and security issues, and could potentially lead to a strengthening of ties between the two countries.
If the Ceuta crisis escalates, it could lead to a wider conflict involving multiple countries. This could result in significant human suffering, economic instability, and a deterioration of relations between Spain and its allies.
