Iran claims strikes on ships in Strait of Hormuz and U.S. base in Kuwait
Iran claims strikes on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and a U.S. base in Kuwait, while oil giants reap record profits from the six-month conflict.
Intelligence analysis by Llama
Live updates from the U.S.-Iran conflict now in its sixth month: Iran says it struck two tankers under U.S. escort in the Strait of Hormuz and launched drone strikes at a U.S. air base in Kuwait. Oil prices have surged, with Exxon and Chevron reporting massive profit gains, as the Senate narrowly rejected limits on Trump's war powers.
Two countries, the U.S. and Iran, have been fighting for six months. Iran says it attacked ships carrying oil in a narrow water passage and sent drones at an American base in Kuwait. Because oil can't move easily anymore, gas and plane fuel cost more, and big oil companies are making lots of money.
Analysis
The Strait Closes Down
Iran's Revolutionary Guard said it struck two tankers attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz under U.S. military "air escort" and turned back four more vessels. Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority went further, declaring transit through the chokepoint "not possible" because of "aggressive actions" by U.S. forces. The Strait, which historically carried about a fifth of the world's oil and gas, has become the central front in a conflict now stretching into its sixth month. The U.S. military's Central Command said it has redirected 24 commercial vessels since restarting a blockade on Iranian ports, up from 20 a day earlier. The tit-for-tat escalation signals a deliberate squeeze on global energy supply lines, with both sides using maritime control as a lever.
Big Oil's Windfall
The squeeze has translated into extraordinary gains for U.S. producers. Exxon Mobil reported second-quarter profits of $14.53 billion, more than double the prior year, on $116 billion in revenue. Chevron nearly quadrupled profits to $12.07 billion, with revenue up 56% to $70 billion. Brent crude prices jumped from roughly $70 to above $100 a barrel through much of March, April, and May, peaking at $126, as shipping through the Strait was effectively halted. That pricing power has been a bonanza for major producers, though consumers in countries from Australia to Nepal to Sri Lanka have faced rationing and shortages. As Global Witness's Patrick Galey put it, "There are constituencies around the world who are having a very good crisis, and the oil producers are one of them."
War Powers on the Edge
On Capitol Hill, the Senate voted 49-50 on Thursday to reject an effort to limit President Trump's war powers over Iran, the latest narrow defeat for lawmakers seeking to rein in the conflict. The vote underscores how thin the political backing for the war remains, with just a single senator's shift potentially changing the outcome. The combination of a six-month military campaign, energy market shock, surging corporate profits, and a fragile domestic political consensus creates a volatile backdrop heading into the fall. With Iran now formally declaring the Strait closed and U.S. forces actively escorting convoys, the risk of miscalculation between the two militaries is high.
Key points
- Iran's Revolutionary Guard says it struck two tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz under U.S. air escort and turned back four others
- Iran also claims drone strikes on the Ahmad al-Jaber Air Base in Kuwait; U.S. Central Command has not commented
- Exxon Mobil doubled quarterly profits to $14.53 billion and Chevron nearly quadrupled to $12.07 billion as Brent crude topped $100
- The Senate voted 49-50 to reject an effort to limit President Trump's Iran war powers, the latest narrow defeat for such measures
- Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority declared transit through the Strait 'not possible' due to U.S. 'aggressive actions'
With Iran declaring the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and the U.S. conducting active convoy escorts, the risk of direct fire between the two militaries has risen sharply. Sustained disruption of one-fifth of global oil and gas flows could keep Brent prices elevated well above $100 a barrel, deepen fuel shortages in import-dependent economies, and entrench a conflict that the Senate has only narrowly refused to constrain.
Market signals
- XOM The article reports Exxon Mobil doubled second-quarter profits to $14.53 billion on Brent prices that surged past $100 a barrel due to the conflict.
- CVX The article reports Chevron nearly quadrupled quarterly profits to $12.07 billion with revenue up 56% on the same supply-driven price surge.
- OIL Halting most shipping through the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent from about $70 to peaks of $126 a barrel, per the article's framing.
AI-generated analysis of potential market relevance. Not financial advice.
