Iraq Eyes Supplying Turkey with 1 Million Oil Barrels a Day Amid Hormuz Crisis
Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Zeydi offered to supply Turkey with 1 million barrels of oil per day as Ankara seeks to reduce its dependence on disrupted Gulf routes. The two countries signed a deal for Turkish Petroleum to acquire a 15% stake in BP's operations at the Kirkuk o…
Intelligence analysis by Llama
Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Zeydi visited Ankara to discuss energy and regional security with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The two leaders agreed to supply Turkey with 1 million barrels of oil per day and signed a deal for Turkish Petroleum to acquire a 15% stake in BP's operations at the Kirkuk oilfield.
Imagine you're driving a car, and you need to fill up the tank with gasoline. Iraq is like a big gas station that can supply Turkey with 1 million barrels of oil per day. This is important because it helps Turkey get the oil it needs without relying on other countries.
Analysis
A New Era in Energy Cooperation
The agreement between Iraq and Turkey to supply Turkey with 1 million barrels of oil per day marks a significant shift in the two countries' energy cooperation. This move is a response to the disruption of Gulf routes due to the Iran war, which has pushed up global energy prices and closed the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq is already one of Turkey's closest trading partners and a major source of crude, making this agreement a natural step forward.
The Development Road Project
The $17 billion Development Road project, a motorway, railway, and pipeline corridor running from Iraq's port of Basra to the Turkish border and onward to Europe, was a key part of the talks. The project aims to give Iraq a direct land route to European markets, reducing its dependence on Gulf shipping. The goal has become more pressing since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The two countries are close to finalising details, and construction could begin before the end of 2026.
Reviving the Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline
The decades-old Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline agreement expired in July 2026. The two countries are negotiating a replacement deal, which must include a mechanism guaranteeing full use of the pipeline's capacity of up to 1.5 million barrels per day. Reviving the pipeline has been a priority for both governments, and Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said Turkey was also examining ways to send natural gas to Iraqi power plants struggling with shortages.
Key points
- Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Zeydi offered to supply Turkey with 1 million barrels of oil per day.
- The two countries signed a deal for Turkish Petroleum to acquire a 15% stake in BP's operations at the Kirkuk oilfield.
- The agreement aims to reduce Turkey's dependence on disrupted Gulf routes and provide a new source of crude for the country.
- The two countries are close to finalising details for the $17 billion Development Road project.
- The Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline agreement expired in July 2026, and the two countries are negotiating a replacement deal.
If this agreement plays out positively, it could lead to increased trade and economic cooperation between Iraq and Turkey, benefiting both countries and reducing their dependence on disrupted Gulf routes.
However, there are risks associated with this agreement, such as the potential for disputes over the Development Road project or the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline. Additionally, the agreement may not address the underlying issues driving the disruption of Gulf routes, such as the Iran war.
