Iraq’s paramilitary groups say they will disarm. Will that ever happen?
Iraq’s new prime minister wants weapons under state control, but several armed groups remain uncertain or opposed.
Intelligence analysis by GPT-5.4 Mini
Iraq is under renewed pressure, from both Washington and its own economic strain, to bring powerful paramilitary groups under state control. Some factions say they will comply, but others are resisting and the process looks politically delicate.
Iraq is trying to get all the big guns under one rule, like asking many neighborhood teams to give their bats to the city coach. Some teams say yes, others say no, so no one knows if the plan will really work.
Analysis
What the government is trying to do
Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi used his first speech before parliament to promise a stronger state monopoly on arms and a more capable security apparatus. The article frames this as a familiar Iraqi goal, but one that has repeatedly run into the reality of well-armed paramilitary factions with deep political influence.
Why the pressure is rising now
The story says the push is happening under heavy external and internal pressure. Washington wants the armed groups curbed, especially amid the wider US-Israel war on Iran. At the same time, Iraq’s economy has been hit hard by the conflict: oil exports reportedly fell sharply after the Strait of Hormuz was closed, and oil revenue makes up more than 90% of the state budget. That means security policy is tied directly to economic stability.
Who is moving, and who is not
Muqtada al-Sadr backed the effort by announcing that Saraya al-Salam would separate from his political movement and integrate into the state forces. Faleh al-Fayyad, who heads the Popular Mobilisation Forces, also spoke of a complete separation from political groups and a unified chain of command under the prime minister.
But the article makes clear that not everyone is on board. Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba rejected the government’s call to restrict weapons to the state. Asaib Ahl al-Haq said it would comply, though the piece notes it is designated by the US as a foreign terrorist organization.
The open question
The central uncertainty is not the announcement itself, but implementation. The article asks whether groups that built power over years will truly hand over weapons, and what they would expect in return. One unnamed senior Shia figure argues a slow dismantling is safer than confrontation, warning that forced action could lead to bloodshed. The piece suggests al-Sadr may also be positioning himself for a possible political return rather than fully leaving the scene.
Key points
- Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi says Iraq must restrict weapons to state control.
- The push is happening under pressure from Washington and amid economic strain from regional conflict.
- Muqtada al-Sadr said Saraya al-Salam would separate from his movement and join state forces.
- Some groups, including Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba, رفض the government’s call to disarm.
- The article says the biggest uncertainty is whether armed groups will actually hand over weapons and what they would get in return.
If the agreement holds, Iraq could reduce the power of armed groups outside the state and strengthen its security forces. That could also help calm investor fears and support a more stable economy.
The groups that rejected the plan may keep their weapons and political influence, making the government look weak. If pressure turns into confrontation, the article warns it could trigger bloodshed and deepen instability.
