Nuclear powers increasing deployment of warheads, SIPRI warns
SIPRI says nuclear states are shifting warheads from storage to deployment, even as total stockpiles edge down. The group warns nuclear risks are rising as arms control weakens.
Intelligence analysis by GPT-5.4 Mini
SIPRI says the world’s nuclear powers still have fewer total warheads than in past decades, but the danger is rising because more weapons are being kept ready for use. The think tank links the trend to great-power rivalry, arms-control breakdowns, and faster deployment of new systems.
The world still has fewer nuclear weapons than before, but more of them are being kept ready to use. It is like fewer matches sitting in a box, but more matches being held in someone’s hand near a campfire.
Analysis
What SIPRI warns
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute says the world’s nuclear powers are increasingly moving warheads out of storage and onto delivery systems that can be used operationally. That shift matters because it reduces the time and space available for de-escalation if a crisis breaks out.
SIPRI estimates that the nine nuclear-armed states together hold about 12,187 warheads, with roughly 9,745 in stockpiles for possible use. That is a slight decline from the previous year, continuing a long trend in which older warheads have generally been dismantled faster than new ones have been deployed since the end of the Cold War.
Why the trend may reverse
The institute says that pattern is now under pressure. It cites slower dismantlement, faster deployment of new weapons, and worsening geopolitical rivalry. SIPRI director Karim Haggag told AFP that the more troubling development is not the lower total number of warheads, but the rise in nuclear danger and risk.
The report also points to a broader weakening of strategic arms control and to competition among the major nuclear powers. SIPRI says some states are taking warheads out of storage and placing them on nuclear-capable delivery systems, increasing the number of deployed weapons.
Country snapshots
The US and Russia still account for about 83% of the world’s nuclear stockpile, with more than 5,000 warheads each. Both are modernising their arsenals, though both programmes face problems. SIPRI says the US effort has run into planning and funding delays, while Russia has faced failed missile tests and pressure from sanctions and the war in Ukraine.
China is expanding its arsenal faster than any other country, with SIPRI estimating 620 warheads. The institute says China could have as many intercontinental ballistic missiles as the US and Russia by 2030, depending on how it structures its forces.
France and the UK have held steady at 290 and 225 warheads respectively, though both are expected to expand their arsenals. India is believed to have increased slightly to 190 warheads, while Pakistan remains at 170 but continues to accumulate fissile material. North Korea is pursuing its stated goal of rapidly expanding its arsenal, and Israel is believed to be modernising its own stockpile.
Key points
- SIPRI says nuclear powers are moving more warheads from storage onto delivery systems.
- The institute estimates 12,187 warheads worldwide, with about 9,745 in stockpiles for possible use.
- SIPRI warns that declining stockpiles may reverse as dismantlement slows and new deployment speeds up.
- The US and Russia still hold about 83% of the global nuclear stockpile.
- China is expanding its arsenal faster than any other country, while India, Pakistan, North Korea and others are also modernising or expanding.
- The report links rising nuclear risk to weaker arms control and sharper geopolitical competition.
If current dismantlement continues, the overall number of warheads could still keep falling for a while longer. The article also shows that some arsenals, such as France and the UK, have not yet sharply grown, which leaves room for restraint if arms-control efforts improve.
If the pace of new deployment keeps rising while dismantlement slows, the long decline in nuclear stockpiles could reverse. With arms-control breakdowns and great-power rivalry intensifying, more weapons on alert could make crises faster-moving and harder to contain.
