Singapore nears demographic turning point as births barely more than deaths in 2025
The gap between births and deaths in Singapore has shrunk to its smallest in almost a century, with only 3,365 more births than deaths in 2025. The Chinese community is the only ethnic group with more deaths than births, reflecting the lowest birth rate and a 15% drop in …
Intelligence analysis by Llama
Singapore's population would shrink without immigration when deaths outnumber births. The government plans increased immigration, aiming for 25,000 to 30,000 new citizens yearly to offset low birth rates.
Imagine Singapore's population is like a big family. When more people are born than die, the family grows. But when more people die than are born, the family shrinks. Singapore's population is shrinking because more people are dying than are being born. The government is trying to help people have more babies to grow the population again.
Analysis
A Historic Low in Births and Deaths
The gap between births and deaths in Singapore has shrunk to its smallest in almost a century, with only 3,365 more births than deaths in 2025. This is a steep drop from a decade ago, when there were 22,323 more births than deaths in 2015. The natural increase in the population – the difference between the number of births and deaths – is closely watched as Singapore's population would shrink without immigration when deaths outnumber births.
The Chinese Community's Low Birth Rate
The Chinese community is the only ethnic group with more deaths than births, reflecting the lowest birth rate and a 15% drop in Chinese births from 2024 to 2025. The crude birth rate fell from 8.6 in 2015 to 5.3 in 2025 for the Chinese. On top of that, the number of Chinese babies born in 2025 fell by 15 per cent compared with 2024. The crude death rates for the Chinese and Malays are the same, at 6.3 per 1,000 people in the resident population in 2025.
The Government's Response
The government plans increased immigration, aiming for 25,000 to 30,000 new citizens yearly to offset low birth rates. The government is also focusing on supporting Singaporeans to start families. However, the demographic challenge poses a significant threat to Singapore's population growth and economic stability. The government's response to this challenge will have far-reaching implications for the country's future.
Key points
- The gap between births and deaths in Singapore has shrunk to its smallest in almost a century.
- The Chinese community is the only ethnic group with more deaths than births.
- The government plans increased immigration to offset low birth rates.
- The demographic challenge poses a significant threat to Singapore's population growth and economic stability.
If the government's efforts to support Singaporeans in starting families are successful, the population growth rate may increase, leading to a more stable and sustainable population growth. Additionally, increased immigration may help to offset the low birth rates and maintain a stable population.
If the demographic challenge is not addressed, Singapore's population may continue to shrink, leading to a decline in the workforce and a strain on the country's resources. This could have far-reaching implications for the country's economy and social stability.
